Swing Voters and Elastic States

[illegaloperation]

This is a very interesting read: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/21/swing-voters-and-elastic-states/

I am not going to reproduce all the content here.

[illegaloperation]

The population of the state seems to be relevant here.  Bigger states look to be generally less elastic.  This also suggests that the easiest GOP route to 270 runs through CO and the upper Midwest as opposed to PA and VA. 

This would be correct. Virginia and North Carolina are going to be blue and probably stay there. Pennsylvania will probably stays where it is.

Colorado will be lean Democratic in the future (the chart above is based on 2008 data), but will still be elastic.

[illegaloperation]

What I wonder is if Georgia or Arizona should be the next state for Democrats to focus on.

Georgia is close, but inelastic. Arizona is further, but elastic.

Of cause North Carolina is inelastic, but Obama was able to win in 2008 with a good ground game and got close again in 2012.

[illegaloperation]

What I wonder is if Georgia or Arizona should be the next state for Democrats to focus on.

Georgia is close, but inelastic. Arizona is further, but elastic.

Of cause North Carolina is inelastic, but Obama was able to win in 2008 with a good ground game and got close again in 2012.

Georgia. It actually trended Democratic this cycle (2008 to 2012), while Arizona did not. Had Obama seriously contested it in 2008, there's a real chance it could have been within 2%.

Arizona doesn't seem to be moving at all, which is very surprising.

Georgia seems to be ~2% more Republican than North Carolina (if contested) although it could be more since North Carolina is moving faster to the left.

I am guessing that after getting North Carolina back, Democrats would go after Georgia.