Slowing Trend in North Carolina

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You know I keep forgetting North Carolina has their elections in presidential years. This means the state's internal affairs has more of a pull on the presidential election than other states. Damn!

It's probably safe to say that Perdue pulled Obama down with her in 2012.

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I think it will have about a 3 point R lean in 2016 and close to even by 2020. It's about 8 years behind Virginia.

I have been saying this for a while now: North Carolina is 8 years behind Virginia.

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I think it will have about a 3 point R lean in 2016 and close to even by 2020. It's about 8 years behind Virginia.

I have been saying this for a while now: North Carolina is 8 years behind Virginia.

Quite true:

North Carolina (2000) = R+13
Virginia (1992) = R+10 (Perot brought the margin down)

North Carolina (2004) = R+10
Virginia (1996) = R+10

North Carolina (2008) = R+7
Virginia (2000) = R+9

North Carolina (2012) = R+6
Virginia (2004) = R+6

Now, if it were to follow as you said, there would be a massive democratic surge in 2016 that allows it to go from R+6 to R+1, we'll see if that really happens.

I doubt that even a huge surge can bring North Carolina to R+1 in 2016.

It will probably be R+3 (or R+2 with a surge).

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I think it will have about a 3 point R lean in 2016 and close to even by 2020. It's about 8 years behind Virginia.

I have been saying this for a while now: North Carolina is 8 years behind Virginia.

Quite true:

North Carolina (2000) = R+13
Virginia (1992) = R+10 (Perot brought the margin down)

North Carolina (2004) = R+10
Virginia (1996) = R+10

North Carolina (2008) = R+7
Virginia (2000) = R+9

North Carolina (2012) = R+6
Virginia (2004) = R+6

Now, if it were to follow as you said, there would be a massive democratic surge in 2016 that allows it to go from R+6 to R+1, we'll see if that really happens.

I doubt that even a huge surge can bring North Carolina to R+1 in 2016.

Me too. I don't know why Democrats are in so much denial about North Carolina's slowing trend. Actually, the same goes for Georgia's mythical trend. Yet they'll get all over us about being in denial about Virginia. What's funny is when it comes to Virginia, they're just making up our denial and lying about it. Our problem in Virginia is that we don't know how to campaign there yet.

lol!  You should read FiveThirtyEight. It talk about these things.

Both Virginia and North Carolina slowed down because of the recession and will pickup speed again.

As for Georgia, there isn't much movement right now because the Democratic gain among minorities is being cancelled by lost among whites. Democrats will need to wait until the percentage of whites drop low enough.

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I think it will have about a 3 point R lean in 2016 and close to even by 2020. It's about 8 years behind Virginia.

I have been saying this for a while now: North Carolina is 8 years behind Virginia.

Quite true:

North Carolina (2000) = R+13
Virginia (1992) = R+10 (Perot brought the margin down)

North Carolina (2004) = R+10
Virginia (1996) = R+10

North Carolina (2008) = R+7
Virginia (2000) = R+9

North Carolina (2012) = R+6
Virginia (2004) = R+6

Now, if it were to follow as you said, there would be a massive democratic surge in 2016 that allows it to go from R+6 to R+1, we'll see if that really happens.

I doubt that even a huge surge can bring North Carolina to R+1 in 2016.

Me too. I don't know why Democrats are in so much denial about North Carolina's slowing trend. Actually, the same goes for Georgia's mythical trend. Yet they'll get all over us about being in denial about Virginia. What's funny is when it comes to Virginia, they're just making up our denial and lying about it. Our problem in Virginia is that we don't know how to campaign there yet.

lol!  You should read FiveThirtyEight. It talk about these things.

Both Virginia and North Carolina slowed down because of the recession and will pickup speed again.

As for Georgia, there isn't much movement right now because the Democratic gain among minorities is being cancelled by lost among whites. Democrats will need to wait until the percentage of whites drop low enough.

You're saying we were in a recession last year which hurt Obama in Virginia and North Carolina?

Virginia and North Carolina are moving to the left because Northerners are moving there.

[illegaloperation]

I don't know why I have to keep explaining this to barfbag.

Virginia and North Carolina are moving to the left because of influx of Northerners moving to the urban areas (namely Northern Virginia, Charlotte, and Research Triangle).

Because of the recession, there are fewer job openings, hence slowing the influx.

I am sure, barfbag will disregard what I said. He will be sure to state the "real" reason Obama did well there is because Obama is black.

[illegaloperation]

I don't know why I have to keep explaining this to barfbag.

Virginia and North Carolina are moving to the left because of influx of Northerners moving to the urban areas (namely Northern Virginia, Charlotte, and Research Triangle).

Because of the recession, there are fewer job openings, hence slowing the influx.

I am sure, barfbag will disregard what I said. He will be sure to state the "real" reason Obama did well there is because Obama is black.

Wasn't the democrat/Obama message through the whole 2012 campaign that the economy is improving/has gotten better? But you're still saying a recession that happened 5 years ago is still affecting the states politics? And that the recession is slowing down the states democratic trend because not enough people are moving or there or there is not enough population growth?

You misread what I've written.

The economy has gotten better, but Obama first term started when the economy was collapsing.

Obviously, there were fewer new hirings between the period of late 2008 and late 2012 than between the period of late 2004 and late 2008.

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North Carolina would have been more democratic in 2008 and 2012 if Obama wasn't running. Sad fact is alot of southern whites that would have voted for the dems didn't because of the color of Obama's skin.

In North Carolina? This isn't the deep south. There probably are a minor group of people who vote against Obama because he is black, but do you think some blacks voted for Obama because the color of his skin? I would say so.

Whites in North Carolina went 73% for Bush, 68% for Romney, 64% for McCain. Obama got >30% both times as where Kerry didn't. If something was race-based, why wouldn't Obama get less white support the first time? Maybe, just maybe, a small portion of whites actually voted against him the second time because of the dislike of his policies and time in office. I don't know, is there any evidence that any other Democrat would've done better in NC?

He's talking about southern whites.

A lot of the non-native from the North are also white.

[illegaloperation]

I don't know why I have to keep explaining this to barfbag.

Virginia and North Carolina are moving to the left because of influx of Northerners moving to the urban areas (namely Northern Virginia, Charlotte, and Research Triangle).

Because of the recession, there are fewer job openings, hence slowing the influx.

I am sure, barfbag will disregard what I said. He will be sure to state the "real" reason Obama did well there is because Obama is black.

So the state's recession is slowing down growth to the point it hurt Obama? Or the recession is still going on and it hurt Obama? I've never said Obama did well there because he's black. Now Bill Clinton did say such a thing when Obama won South Carolina. His remarks were "Jesse Jackson won there" regarding Obama's victory in the 2008 primaries. It helped him sure, but he would've won Virginia both times.

Actually, the recession ended a while ago.

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You just said the recession is causing fewer job openings though. I agree the recession is over.

This is like asking why a store that has been hit by a flood hasn’t sold many products despite the store having being re-opened.

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Part of the problem we have is that North Carolina's elections are the same as presidential elections so the state's internal politics effects the state more than other states.

Actually, that is not a problem at all.

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Part of the problem we have is that North Carolina's elections are the same as presidential elections so the state's internal politics effects the state more than other states.

Actually, that is not a problem at all.

Do you think Obama helped the state in 2008 or the state helped Obama there?

Neither. Easley was popular until he was hit by a number of scandals.

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My concern with the crazy GOP legislature here, is would Northerners be deterred from moving here because of that.

I doubt they care as long as there are job openings.

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Wait when you said not a problem did you mean because it benefited Democrats? LOL

It cut both ways. Perdue's unpopularity dragged Obama down in 2012.

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Part of what I was getting at too is that Republicans in North Carolina seem disgruntled or almost as if they're doing all they can to turn the state back and the legislature isn't the place to do such a thing. Their ideology is going to rub people the wrong way. What they need to do is talk about their conservatism in ways people can relate to as Bush brilliantly did. At the rate they're going, it could flip in 2016. For now I'll put the state on the right side of the spectrum still. On a brighter note, the trend slowed down to one point in 2012 suggesting that the Democratic trend has nearly stopped. We'll see if it could pick up again.

North Carolina is going to keep moving to the left because the urban areas are growing. There’s no denying that.

Had the Republicans in the general assembly governed from the center or center-right and McCrory been a popular governor, the Democratic takeover would have been delayed. They could have kept North Carolina Republican for many more cycles, but now, it’s going to accelerate because of what they are doing.

The opposite scenario happens in Arkansas.  Arkansas would have flipped Republican a long time ago, but a series of popular Democratic politicians (Bill Clinton, David Pryor, Dale Bumpers) helped delay the takeover.

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The Tar Heel State will be R+3 in 2016.

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Democrats controlled North Carolina at the state level for 140 years before they collapsed in 2010.
Even when a Republican governor was in office, Democrats were running the state behind the scene.

North Carolina Democrats are actually quite conservative. It would be fair to call them moderate Republicans.

North Carolina Republicans are ever farther right and consist almost entirely of far-right wing conservatives.

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That's very interesting. I didn't know that. Have your Republicans always been so conservative? I'm wondering if they evolved from the southern Democrats of the mid-20th century.

The NC Republicans was very moderate until people like Jesse Helms joined it.

The strain of the old Dixiecrat is still in the modern NC Republican Party.

The "Jessecrats" are essential to any Republican wins in North Caroline.

[illegaloperation]

That's very interesting. I didn't know that. Have your Republicans always been so conservative? I'm wondering if they evolved from the southern Democrats of the mid-20th century.

The NC Republicans was very moderate until people like Jesse Helms joined it.

The strain of the old Dixiecrat is still in the modern NC Republican Party.

The "Jessecrats" are essential to any Republican wins in North Caroline.

Oh man maybe I'll move there and turn them into RINO's.

You can do that, but the Jessecrats are a diminishing part of the electorate, hence why governing from the far-right is a shortsighted decision.

My suggestion is for you to move to South Carolina. You would fit in there. Maybe you can help them replace Lindsey Graham with a very conservative senator.

[illegaloperation]

That's very interesting. I didn't know that. Have your Republicans always been so conservative? I'm wondering if they evolved from the southern Democrats of the mid-20th century.

The NC Republicans was very moderate until people like Jesse Helms joined it.

The strain of the old Dixiecrat is still in the modern NC Republican Party.

The "Jessecrats" are essential to any Republican wins in North Caroline.

Oh man maybe I'll move there and turn them into RINO's.

You can do that, but the Jessecrats are a diminishing part of the electorate, hence why governing from the far-right is a shortsighted decision.

My suggestion is for you to move to South Carolina. You would fit in there. Maybe you can help them replace Lindsey Graham with a very conservative senator.

But if we're already going to win South Carolina, then it would help our party more if I moved to North Carolina. They seem to be dwindling there and need more help. I meant if I moved to North Carolina, then I could help the Republicans moderate more since I'm pretty moderate myself.

Actually, if you want to help your party, it makes more sense for you to stay in Virginia.

If Hillary is leading in North Carolina, then she very likely already have the election in the bag.

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What I am saying is that there no possible way Hillary could win North Carolina, but lose the election.