Libya: Benghazi unrest, to Civil War, to a new government and Gaddafi's death.

[J. J.]

J.J., take a look at a map.  Both Zirtan and Misurata are in the west and Gaddafi's forces had already entered Misurata by the time the air campaign began. Where Gaddafi has been forced to retreat is in the east.

They just entered Misrata today.  The people were celebrating, then the shelling started.  Later, tanks entered the city.  I just saw it on the BBC.

J.J., that fighting has been going for days.  Wikipedia has a fairly good and well-cited summary of what has been going on in Misurata for the past month. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Misurata

Yes, and as of this morning Qaddafi's forces entered the city and were in there with tanks.  One tank also got into Benghazi, though it is believed it was eventually destroyed.

[J. J.]

I don't see what everyone expects Obama to do. Would military intervention in Libya really be worth it?

As Beet said, it's hard to imagine that the consequences of limited military intervention in Libya would be anywhere near as bad as the consequences of Qaddafi defeating the rebellion.

Are you serious? Once Gaddafi defeats the rebellion he'll knock things into shape and the oil will flow out.  If we intervene we'll have endless war, dead americans, destabiliation, bearded men, and blocked oil.  I just find it astounding that people are suddenly pro-intervention.

If are goal was to defeat Qaddafi and establish a freer Libya, and we were willing to commit the resources to do it, I'd agree with Lief.  I'd be willing to take the chances of a few beards (that would see us as friendly).

Instead, it looks like the worst of both worlds.  Qaddafi remains, the beards become angry because we can't help, and we get an insurgent movement in Libya.

[J. J.]

Rebel control in Ajdabiya seems to be slipping.

Let me repeat that : we can't let things last that way for decades.

I doubt it we can win this from the air or the sea.  Is it worth it to you to send 1-2 US divisions?

[J. J.]

Some progress reported outside of Benghazi, at Ajdabiya.  The rebels crossed the desert and entered the city.

[J. J.]

Some progress reported outside of Benghazi, at Ajdabiya.  The rebels crossed the desert and entered the city.

Reports are now that they've recaptured Ajdabiya, with Gaddafi's forces retreating towards Brega.

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Libyan+rebels+rout+Gadhafi+forces+strategic+town/4508698/story.html

Sort of.  They are in, but they still have Qaddafi troops fighting in the city.

[J. J.]

The pace the rebels are moving at makes quite a bit of sense.  Most/all of their vehicles are stolen Qaddafi ones.  It would be quite embarrassing to get ahead of themselves and see their forces demolished by a Coalition friendly fire incident.

Friendly fire incidents happen with the best ground to air communications.

[J. J.]

Anyone else think we're watching a real-life version of Mad Max?

"We don't need another hero?"

[J. J.]

Sirt is the scene of major battles, today.  Sirt is both important as a symbol (Qaddafi's hometown and the site of the greatest number of Qaddafi loyalists that actually support him) and as a strategic target (it would allow the main rebel force to connect up with and relieve the beleaguered rebel defenders of Misrata, which has been cut off from the rest of the rebellion for weeks).

The advance was "stalled" as of the 6:30 news.

[J. J.]

Sirt is the scene of major battles, today.  Sirt is both important as a symbol (Qaddafi's hometown and the site of the greatest number of Qaddafi loyalists that actually support him) and as a strategic target (it would allow the main rebel force to connect up with and relieve the beleaguered rebel defenders of Misrata, which has been cut off from the rest of the rebellion for weeks).

The advance was "stalled" as of the 6:30 news.

So I take it that the rebel's experimental Office Chair Calvary didn't work out as hoped?

It's better than walking!

[J. J.]

I would be very supportive of arming the rebels. 

[J. J.]

I'm not sure I read the situation quite the same way.  The coalition isn't attacking Gaddafi's forces because they're in "close quarters" to the rebels?  I think it's more a matter of the coalition sticking to the UN mandate, which allows them to attack Gaddafi's forces to protect civilian population centers, but not simply to protect combatants.  Hence, they're not really doing anything to help the rebels when they battle Gaddafi along the road between Ajdabiya and Sirte.  But if Gaddafi tries to move in on Ajdabiya or Benghazi again, the coalition bombing will presumably resume.  (The coalition bombing currently seems to have moved more to the task of stopping in Gaddafi in Misrata, but that's probably a lost cause.)

Actually, by attacking tanks and artillery, they are exceeding the mandate.  It is one thing to shoot down planes, destroy them on the ground, crater airfields and take out air defenses.  It is another to take out tanks and ground artillery.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The key in the east for Qaddafi in the east would be to use very small units, using machine guns, RFG's, and mortars.  They could get close to Ajdadiya and even Benghazi.  It is difficult to attack those from the air, successfully.

[J. J.]

^^

To be precise, paragraph 4 of the resolution states:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Which isn't then a "no-fly zone."

In any event, Qaddafi forces have turned to the "small unit tactic" and the rebels are in retreat.

[J. J.]

I vehemently oppose arming the rebels. At a certain point we need to learn our lesson and stop giving weapons to insurgents who are for the time being on our side but may not be in a decade.

If we don't, the rebels lose.  Just understand the stakes.

[J. J.]

Now there is some discussion of group troops being sent in:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42657450/ns/world_news-mideastn_africa/

[J. J.]

"Obama has OK'd use of drones in Libya, Gates says"


I must admit, I appreciate the fact that the administration has so enthusiastically employed drones.  Personally, I'm very interested in aviation and find unmanned aircraft's to be a significant step forward at about 1/6 of the estimated cost of an F-15 (& about 1/4 of the F-16, which was deployed for the no-fly zone).   Hopefully, they can be shown to sustain military and economic viability.  If it keeps military personnel off the battlefield it's clearly a technological avenue to travel.


http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/04/21/obama-has-okd-use-of-drones-in-libya-gates-says/?hpt=T2

They, like air power in general, have their uses.  Like air power, they are not a substitute for boots on the ground.

[J. J.]

"Obama has OK'd use of drones in Libya, Gates says"


I must admit, I appreciate the fact that the administration has so enthusiastically employed drones.  Personally, I'm very interested in aviation and find unmanned aircraft's to be a significant step forward at about 1/6 of the estimated cost of an F-15 (& about 1/4 of the F-16, which was deployed for the no-fly zone).   Hopefully, they can be shown to sustain military and economic viability.  If it keeps military personnel off the battlefield it's clearly a technological avenue to travel.


http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/04/21/obama-has-okd-use-of-drones-in-libya-gates-says/?hpt=T2

They, like air power in general, have their uses.  Like air power, they are not a substitute for boots on the ground.

It can be argued however, that the general idea can be a substitute for manned aircraft.

To an extent, yes.  It you are planning combat actions, they are a good choice.

[J. J.]

NATO hit Qaddafi's compound, and missed him.

[J. J.]

NATO hit Qaddafi's compound, and missed him.

Did they really think he'll be here?

I think he was, or nearby.

[J. J.]

I take it nobody had anytime in July in the pool?

[J. J.]

The rebels are now willing to say that Qaddafi can stay in Libya unprosecuted if he steps down. 

Good old Gaddafi is too smart to believe anything these people say, Mikado.

 

No reason to prosecute a corpse opebo.  If Qaddafi stays in Libya without being in charge, it will not be long before he is killed.

I think Qaddafi realizes that.  I'm now wondering who will be in office longer, Qaddafi or Obama.

[J. J.]

Gold is reacting by going up $22.50 per Troy Ounce in Asian markets.  Spot Oil is at $82,05, up and spiking on the news.  There is a lot of uncertainty.

[J. J.]

Two immediate problems:

1.  Qaddafi could try a guerrilla war.

2.  There could be a tribal war, even if Qaddafi's followers give up.

Libya could look like Iraq before the surge.  Don't get too happy yet.  

[J. J.]

I'm now wondering who will be in office longer, Qaddafi or Obama.

(please note that was only 5 days ago.)

He's still not out, as of yet.  We could be seeing him controlling parts of Libya, if not parts of Tripoli.  Hold your breath, everyone.

[J. J.]

Oh, and BRTD:

I'd like to remind everyone that this military force kicked Gadaffi's ass:

Nearly 6 months later, and they're still at it.

[J. J.]

I'm now wondering who will be in office longer, Qaddafi or Obama.

(please note that was only 5 days ago.)

He's still not out, as of yet.  We could be seeing him controlling parts of Libya, if not parts of Tripoli.  Hold your breath, everyone.

I'm sure a rogue Ghaddafi surviving on eating beetles in a hole somewhere will make it all the way to February 2013, J.J..

No, but he could very probably lead a guerrilla war.

The only part of Libya that's confirmed loyalist-controlled is Sirt.  Without Tripoli, he doesn't really have a base anymore outside of his hometown of Sirt, and a town of ~200k people is no base of operations in a country of over 6m people.

The rebels don't have Tripoli yet.