How brutal will the 2014 elections be for Republicans if Perry wins?

[J. J.]

Probably a loss of most the seats they would win in 2012 in the House.

I'd expect the Senate to increase 1-3 seats.

That assumes that Perry wins by a large margin.

[J. J.]

Probably a loss of most the seats they would win in 2012 in the House.

I'd expect the Senate to increase 1-3 seats.

That assumes that Perry wins by a large margin.

lol

Ah, how many Democratic Senate seats are up in 2014?

[J. J.]

Good point. The Democrats would have massive gains in the House, but partisanship would probably save all but Collins in the Senate.

Well, first, even with Obama cruising to victory in 2012, I'd expect the R's to have a net gain of 4 seats in the Senate.  A massive Perry or Romney victory could extend that up to 12 seats.

Even if 2012 is a bad R year, you could see SD, NJ, MT, and AR go R's.

I think that, no matter who is elected in 2012 the GOP will take the Senate and hold it in 2014.  I expect at least a slight increase for the R's in 2014, with a President Romney or Perry.  That's more do to who's up, and where they are from than anything else.

I think the real question is the House.  First, the R's will probably gain 4-10 seats due to redistricting.  Obama could improve and have coattails, but they will be shortened.  The Perry/Romney coattails will be lengthened, but possibly not by much. 

Second is, what will Romney/Perry's coattails be, in addition to that 4-10.  10? 25? 35? 40?  How much will the R "cushion" expand.  We could see an R disaster, where they lose 32 seats, in 2014 and they are down to 243. 

[J. J.]

The headline on 11/7/12 will be either:

Obama Re-elected
GOP wins Senate

or

[Insert name of R Nominee] Defeats Obama
GOP wins Senate

or

Too Close to Call
GOP wins Senate

The headline on 11/5/14 will probably be:

GOP Gains in Senate

[J. J.]

The GOP will not gain Senate seats in 2014 if Perry wins. Sorry, JJ. Also the main headline would likely have to do with the dozens and dozens of House seats they'd lose.

I'm talking about a 1-3 seat gain in 2014, not[//i] dozens.  It has to do with the seats that are up.  It has happened in 1934, 1982, and 2002.

As for the main headline, I've indicated that the Senate would not be.

I expect the R's to take the Senate in 2012.  I would expect them to increase seats in 2012 and 2014.

I think that the possibility (probably 50/50) that between 2011 and 2017, the R's will:

1.  Increase the number of Senate Seats four years in a row, or,

2.  Hold at least 60 in the Senate at some point.


Mr. Phips, that is very "00's" thinking.

[J. J.]

Increase Senate seats four years in a row?  2016 will be as lopsided in favor of Democrats as 2012 is for Republicans.  Any Democrat that survived 2010(which was the worst year for Democrats since 1894), they will be able to survive 2016.  The only two Democrats remotely vulnerable in 2016 are Reid and maybe Bennett(but by 2016 Colorado could well be a solid Dem state). 

I doubt if Inouye will be around in 2016; it's possible, but he'll be 92.  There might be a shift on the rest of the Pacific Rim, OR, WA, CA, the latter being a real possibility.  CO and NV might be losses.

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Seats that were D+5.  Right now, there are 21 old seats that the D's hold at are D+2 at worst.  The R's hold only one seat that is greater than D+5.

If there wasn't redistricting, and the R's carried every seat above R+4 and lost every seat below D+2, they would have had a net gain of five seats.  Structurally, that is a problem for the Democrats.  And what D+2 in 2008, might be "even" in 2012, or even R+1.

There are a lot of Republican seats out there being held by Democrats; there are fewer Democratic seats being held by Republicans.

You have a few things here that could come together to form a perfect storm against the Democrats.

[J. J.]

I wonder if these predictions will turn out as well as your 2008 predictions.

Well, I will say that my predictions for 2010 were wrong.  I was looking at about 40 seats for the R's in the House.  What was it, 63?

BTW, nothing about the D's holding R leaning seats is a prediction.  It is fact.  Likewise, nothing about what Senate seats will be up in 2012 and 2014 is a prediction, obviously.

Ironically, the year when the D's could have targeted the greatest number of Senate seats was 2010.

[J. J.]

Increase Senate seats four years in a row?  2016 will be as lopsided in favor of Democrats as 2012 is for Republicans.  Any Democrat that survived 2010(which was the worst year for Democrats since 1894), they will be able to survive 2016.  The only two Democrats remotely vulnerable in 2016 are Reid and maybe Bennett(but by 2016 Colorado could well be a solid Dem state). 

I doubt if Inouye will be around in 2016; it's possible, but he'll be 92.  There might be a shift on the rest of the Pacific Rim, OR, WA, CA, the latter being a real possibility.  CO and NV might be losses.

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Seats that were D+5.  Right now, there are 21 old seats that the D's hold at are D+2 at worst.  The R's hold only one seat that is greater than D+5.

If there wasn't redistricting, and the R's carried every seat above R+4 and lost every seat below D+2, they would have had a net gain of five seats.  Structurally, that is a problem for the Democrats.  And what D+2 in 2008, might be "even" in 2012, or even R+1.

There are a lot of Republican seats out there being held by Democrats; there are fewer Democratic seats being held by Republicans.

You have a few things here that could come together to form a perfect storm against the Democrats.

'


If Republicans couldnt win OR, CO, NV, WA, and CA in a year like 2010, they wont be winning them in a Presidential year.  And where do you get the idea that Republicans are going to win Hawaii in a Presidential year?

Republicans hold over 60 seats that Obama carried, while Democrats hold only about 12 seats that McCain carried. 

Mr. Phips, you assume that 2012 will be 2008.  It won't be. 

Actually, there could be a coattail effect for the Senate.  As noted, in the House, there are currently 18 seats held by D's that are even or from Republican voting districts, according to Cook.  That goes up to 22 at D+1, and 26 at D+2.  That is prior to redistricting.

Because of the way Cook selects his data, the last two presidential elections, his numbers are slightly skewed toward the D's.