Looking ahead just a bit.

[J. J.]

I could see this:

Super Tuesday:

Santorum wins OH, TN, OK, ND, AK, or at least one of the last three.

Gingrich wins only GA, but not strongly.

On 3/7-3/8 Gingrich realizes his goose is cooked (and his goose would take months to baste).  He pulls out and endorses Santorum.

Santorum wins AL and MS, becomes both the right wing candidate and ABR.

[J. J.]

Could happen. I suspect that Gingrich will win GA a little more strongly than that. The polls say he will; if Santorum had won MI, there'd be a sense this week that he was becoming the frontrunner, and more of Gingrich's supporters might be flocking to him. As it is, at least in GA, Gingrich's supporters might as well stick with him as a way to be anti-Romney.
I do think Romney will lose OH, TN, OK, AL and MS. Though I'll be interested to see the polling coming out of OH in the next few days.

AL and MS are not Super Tuesday primaries, and they'll be a reaction to it.

OH is the major one, and about 10% of the state is in the Pittsburgh media market; Santorum was a major figure in that market for 14 years; that helps a bit.

TN and GA seems to be the only "sure losses" for Romney.  If they are his only losses, it is effectively over. 

Santorum has a path to the nomination at this point, but two things have to happen. 

1.  Santorum has to win OH, TN, and probably at least one other state. 

2.  Gingrich has to drop out before AL and MS.  If the Whack-a-Mole pops up in ND, OK, and/or AK, that won't happen.  Basically, Gingrich has to be shut out, except for GA.  A weak showing in GA, will also help Santorum.

Gentlemen, March 6th is the nexus. 

[J. J.]

I aqree that OH is crucial -- should Romney win there, he'd look like a real frontrunner again, and he'd probably start to do better in those March primaries that look so unfriendly to him right now. Should he lose OH, I think he also loses MS and AL the next week, and also KS and LA during the month of March.

I don't think Romney will win MS and AL even if he wins OH.  Those are conservative Evangelical southern states.  The only question I have with those two is if Gingrich or Santorum will win them.  If Gingrich is in the race, he wins them.  If he drops out and endorses Santorum, Santorum wins them.

Right now, what strengthens Gingrich hurts Santorum.  If Santorum wins OH, but can't capitalize on his victory in MS/AL, that hurts him.  

KS, I think, is 3/10, that will help Santorum, a bit, if he wins OH, but I think his momentum could very well be stopped in MS/AL, if Gingrich remains in the race.  There would be no clear ABR candidate.

As I said two things have to happen:

1.  Santorum has to win OH, TN, and probably at least one other state.

2.  Gingrich has to drop out before AL and MS, and probably endorse Santorum.  

If #1 happens, Gingrich is in the role of kingmaker.

[J. J.]

From the perspective of Santorum's chances, what happens to Gingrich is crucial. From the perspective of Romney's chances, it matters less whether there's a clear ABR; what matters is whether the competition between the ABRs leads Romney to start winning states he otherwise wouldn't. Neither of us seem to think that's likely.

I'm looking at the situation where Romney does not end up being the nominee, i.e., where the ABR candidate wins.  That happened in the D nomination in 2004, "Anybody but Dean."  Obama wasn't quite the "Anybody but Clinton" candidate.  Arguably, that happened in 1988 with an "Anybody but Jackson" candidate.

[J. J.]

I'm thinking, I guess, in terms of three scenarios:
1) an ABR wins
2) Romney wins, but only after a prolonged battle over a divided opposition, and without fully winning over more conservative voters.
3) Romney wins decisively and soon, and conservative voters move quickly to unite behind him in order to defeat Obama.

After Florida, 3) looked like a real possibility. Then came MO/CO/MN, which reduced the chances of 3), and increased the chances of 1) and 2).
I think the net result of last night is to reduce the chances of 1) and 3). Romney did well enough that the path to victory for other candidates is now quite narrow, but not so well that disgruntled conservatives who just don't like the guy have any reason -- yet -- to line up behind him. My 2) is looking more and more likely.

I think there will be a point where we'll all look at one candidate and say, "He's got it," even if he isn't yet the nominee.  Like while Huckabee was running after Super Tuesday.  You knew it was a token campaign, and that McCain would be inevitable winner, even when Huckabee won places.

Excepting Paul, I really couldn't say that about the other three candidates.  Mittens has a chance of reaching inevitability next week; the others don't.  He did in SC as well, and he didn't do it.

[J. J.]

I could see this:

Super Tuesday:

Santorum wins OH, TN, OK, ND, AK, or at least one of the last three.

Gingrich wins only GA, but not strongly.

On 3/7-3/8 Gingrich realizes his goose is cooked (and his goose would take months to baste).  He pulls out and endorses Santorum.

Santorum wins AL and MS, becomes both the right wing candidate and ABR.

That could happen, but Gingrich really has no reason to drop out since this is his last race.  If it does happen like this, there will be a frantic search to find a new candidate.  I don't care how late in the game it gets, the DC power players will not willingly allow Santorum to be the nominee.  Romney is far from being out of the woods yet.

Gingrich, if he can't be the king, can be the kingmaker.  That is a huge incentive.  Romney should reward him for staying in.

[J. J.]

I don't think Gingrich will drop out unless he loses GA, and even then he might still stay in. He's probably gunning for VP, though I doubt it's likely that he'll get it.

The only person who would give it to him is Santorum.  If he stays in the race, Santorum will not be the nominee.

[J. J.]

I don't think Gingrich will drop out unless he loses GA, and even then he might still stay in. He's probably gunning for VP, though I doubt it's likely that he'll get it.

The only person who would give it to him is Santorum.  If he stays in the race, Santorum will not be the nominee.

A Santorum/Gingrich ticket would be a gift from Baby Jesus for the Democrats.

I'm not arguing that; I'm arguing that this is the only path of Gingrich surviving the summer.

[J. J.]

Remember this, also, Michigan is NOT a Romney victory, I repeat, Michigan is NOT a Romney victory.  Romney and Santorum will each get 15 delegates from the state, making the state a tie.  So, Romney really can't claim victory even in Michigan.

I doubt most voters know or care about that.

They can be made to care. The Santorum campaign could learn from the Obama campaign's work post-Super Tuesday 2008 on that front.

I doubt if they will, Romney is better shape than Hilary at this point.