UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (user search)
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Author Topic: UK General Election - May 7th 2015  (Read 278084 times)
ChrisDR68
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« Reply #50 on: January 04, 2015, 09:39:54 PM »

Yeah, the trend for Labour to go with a minority versus a fully-fledged coalition is pretty entrenched. IMO, Wilson had the right idea in March of '74 by daring the opposition (particularly the Liberals) to bring down the government - of course, another election was inevitable, but I think the brovado povided a pretty firm grip on power.

February 1974 is a tricky example though as adding the 14 Liberal MP's to either Labour's 301 or the Conservative's 297 would not have resulted in a majority in the House Of Commons.

A scenario which may well be repeated in May this year...
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #51 on: January 07, 2015, 09:34:16 AM »

Blair basically did a whole bunch of cosmetic changes while the real legwork in ridding the party of trots was done by Kinnock and Smith.

Am I right in thinking that the "trots" found themselves within the Labour Party due to the NEC's decision to lift the ban of a number of far left organisations that could affiliate with the party when Labour was going through one of it's more left wing periods in 1973?

If that is correct then that decision is one of the most significant in post war British politics as it gave Labour all sorts of trouble over the next 20 years (including the formation of the breakaway SDP in 1981) and yet it seems to have been largely forgotten. 
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #52 on: January 13, 2015, 09:06:34 AM »

Interesting analysis by Michael Ashcroft about Lib Dem defectors from 2010:

In particular, and crucially, the Lib Dems attracted a group of voters who did not want to vote for Gordon Brown and thought they had the luxury of voting against Labour without helping to elect a Conservative government. These people are numerous, and furious Cheesy

What the Lib Dems have achieved, or how different from the Conservatives they can claim to be, is for them neither here nor there. As far as these people were concerned,  the Lib Dems’ most important job – their only job – was to keep the Tories out, and now look what they’ve done.


The Lib Dems aren't winning those voters back anytime soon! lol

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2013/03/what-are-the-liberal-democrats-for/
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #53 on: January 13, 2015, 05:31:29 PM »

As underwhelming as Ed may be, Labour would be doing worse if his brother were leader. If he couldn't manage to defeat his brother then he sure as heck wouldn't be on course to defeat David Cameron.

I disagree with this but obviously we'll never know. All I've heard at regular intervals on tv programmes such as This Week and the Daily Politics is mention of focus groups saying things like "he's not as good as his brother" and "not up to the job".

Every time I hear him in interviews (as against the usual 10 second news bulletin sound bites) I cringe or turn the sound down... but maybe that's just me lol


An interesting graph from ncpolitics (which is a bit of a stat wank site but all good fun) on 'swingback.' While there are big heavy caveats it does suggest that if the swingback to the government is anything like the average, then the Tories could repeat their 7point lead over Labour.



This is probably the hardest graph to decipher I've ever read Cheesy
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #54 on: January 14, 2015, 10:05:10 AM »

Yes, and the main reason for the wipeout of the Labour lead over the past few months appears to be a leaking of Labour support to those three parties. If those voters come home, then for the most part the said home will not be the Conservative Party.

Best case scenario for both Labour and the Tories in the PV is a 5% win imo. The Tories need a disasterous Miliband campaign and to win back some UKIPers to achieve theirs and Labour needs to claw back Greens/UKIP/SNP defectors (coupled with at least a decent campaign) for theirs.

Does anyone on this forum have confidence that he'll have a good election campaign personally?

My intuition tells me the more the public sees and hears him during the campaign the less they'll like him. That's what several Labour shadow cabinet members were fearful of a couple months ago which is why they were causing all that kerfuffle at the time.
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #55 on: January 16, 2015, 02:56:06 PM »

So with just 110 days to go to the big day (and being someone with a certain fondness for stats Smiley) here is my stab at predicting the result:

......................................................................% Vote.....Popular Vote.....Seats       
Conservatives (David Cameron)........................35.1........10,445,874........293
Labour (Ed Miliband)..........................................30.9..........9,195,940........278
Liberal Democrats (Nick Clegg)..........................13.5..........4,017,643..........31
UK Independence Party (Nigel Farage)..............11.3..........3,362,917............2
Scottish National Party (Nicola Sturgeon)............2.2.............654,727..........23
Others.................................................................7.0..........2,083,223..........23

........................................................................100.0........29,760,324........650

Change from 2010
Con..........-1.0...........-257,780...........-13..............(10,703,654)
Lab..........+1.9..........+589,423..........+20...............(8,606,517)
LibDem.....-9.5........-2,818,605...........-26...............(6,836,248)
UKIP........+8.2.......+2,443,446............+2..................(919,471)
SNP..........+0.5.........+163,341...........+17.................(491,386)     
Oth...........-0.1.............-47,105..............0...............(2,130,328)     


On these seat numbers a centrist and centre right coalition of Con/Lib/DUP would give a majority 14 with a working majority of 24.

An unlikely centrist and centre left coalition of Lab/Lib/SNP would also be possible (mathematically at least) which funnily enough would also have a majority of 14 Cheesy



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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #56 on: January 19, 2015, 01:46:09 PM »

I wonder if all these people telling pollsters they intend to vote Green have actually examined that party's policies?

As far as I can tell their policies are somewhere to the left of Neil Kinnock's 1987 Labour Party... so I presume not! lol

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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #57 on: January 19, 2015, 09:28:35 PM »

Cameron has promised to: hold an EU referendum and reduce immigration next parliament. True, the "anti-establishment" base of UKIP loathe Cameron and think he's a prick, but that will certainly be enough to swing the soft anti-leftists who fear PM Milliband.

Cameron promises an in/out EU referendum... and fully intends to campaign to stay in regardless of the result of his re-negotiation with Brussels about the terms of the UK's membership!

He also talks about reducing net immigration while in the full knowledge he can't do a thing about immigration from other EU countries while the UK is still a member of the EU. Something UKIP never stops pointing out with some glee lol

He's also using the Greens as a blatant smokescreen to avoid participating in the leader's debates. Something everyone but everyone see's through Cheesy

Our dear ol' PM doesn't haven't a great deal of credibility at this moment in time...

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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #58 on: January 20, 2015, 10:20:00 AM »

ICM poll out today in the Guardian:

Labour 33% (nc)
Conservatives 30% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 11% (-3)
UKIP 11% (-3)
Greens 9% (+4)
Others 7% (+1)

Rounding the figures up means the total is 101% lol. Another confirmation of the current (and mysterious) surge for the Greens.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/20/poll-labour-lead-fall-green-conservative-lib-dem-ukip

On a side note Jeremy Paxman has attacked Winston Churchill as a ruthless egotist as a BBC documentary marks the 50th anniversary of his death. Pot calling the kettle black surely! Cheesy

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jan/20/winston-churchill-anniversary-jeremy-paxman
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #59 on: January 21, 2015, 03:00:35 PM »

If this election's lost because of Green voters, Natalie Bennett and Caroline Lucas deserve to be 'Nader'ed.

If Labour loses it will be because they chose the wrong brother as their leader 5 years ago.
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #60 on: January 22, 2015, 10:04:13 AM »

On the contrary, it will take years (and not one or two at that) for living standards to recover to where were before the financial crisis hit, and people are aware of this instinctively (i.e. when people talk of there being 'no recovery' - as they still often do - this is what they mean). It's a good line of attack (and happens to be morally right, though that's by the by), but the question is whether Labour can deliver it effectively during the campaign.

Allied to this though is the rapidly falling petrol and household energy prices (something I didn't expect a year ago but am very happy about as everybody else is I'm sure Smiley. Couple this with the personal allowance finally reaching £10,000 in the spring and a lot of people will be feeling quite buoyant about their personal finances just in time for the general election.   
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #61 on: January 27, 2015, 07:21:18 AM »

Clever poster from the Lib Dems out today. This is the theme I'd imagine their election campaign will be built around (if they've got any sense). The Labour sign pointing left and the Tory one pointing right shows a sense of humour too! lol

Sorry it's so big. I couldn't find a smaller one on the net...



It also takes the piss out of the Conservative poster that David Cameron is standing in front of here Cheesy

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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #62 on: January 29, 2015, 10:41:04 AM »

Neither the Conservatives or Labour will endorse or vote for true proportional representation as the FPTP system is the only one where it is possible for either of them to win a majority in the House Of Commons.

From their point of view better to have full power half the time than shared power with smaller parties for an unknown amount of time.

They both know it's unrepresentative (and therefore undemocratic) but naked self interest rules the roost on this issue and always has.
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #63 on: January 30, 2015, 12:02:22 PM »

Neither the Conservatives or Labour will endorse or vote for true proportional representation as the FPTP system is the only one where it is possible for either of them to win a majority in the House Of Commons.

From their point of view better to have full power half the time than shared power with smaller parties for an unknown amount of time.

They both know it's unrepresentative (and therefore undemocratic) but naked self interest rules the roost on this issue and always has.

Within a Westminster system, they're much more likely to become New Zealand than Scandanavia. And heck, look at Wales and Scotland. The SNP have a maj which was meant to be impossible, Welsh Labour missed out in 2011 by 1 seat.

Well... the Additional Member voting system is more proportional than FPTP but it's still not truely proportional. For example in 2011 the SNP won 45% of the votes cast but 53.5% of the seats. With true PR they would have won 45% of the seats.

Under the increasingly ridiculous FPTP system Labour won 35% of the popular vote in 2005 but 55% of the seats Shocked

I'd like to think there is a system out there which is truly proportional and which also has an element of constituency connection with individual MP's Smiley
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #64 on: February 01, 2015, 07:42:51 AM »

This week's YouGov polls:

27 Jan: Con 34 Lab 33 UKIP 15 Green 7 LD 6 SNP/Plaid 4
28 Jan: Con 34 Lab 33 UKIP 14 Green 7 LD 7 SNP/Plaid 5
29 Jan: Lab 33 Con 33 UKIP 16 Green 7 LD 6 SNP/Plaid 4
30 Jan: Lab 34 Con 34 UKIP 14 Green 7 LD 6 SNP/Plaid 4
1 Feb: Lab 35 Con 32 UKIP 15 LD 7 Green 6 SNP/Plaid 5

I don't see the point in doing an opinion poll each and every day. There's almost bound not to be much difference between them. Better once a week imo.

On the issue of the Tories being the largest party in a hung parliament but with fewer seats than the 306 they won in 2010 I think there are three possibilities:

1. They form another coalition with the Lib Dems.
2. If that coalition with the Lib Dems doesn't get them over or close to the magic 326 number then they could additionally try and form a three way coalition with the Lib Dems and DUP.
3. They try and govern as a minority living a day-to-day existence on issue after issue and vote by vote. An exhausting experience as the Callaghan and late Major governments would testify to.

If option 3 happens a second general election would be quite likely within a year to 18 months imo. 
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #65 on: February 08, 2015, 11:48:08 AM »

Labour are about to wheel A. C. L. Blair out again, it seems.

Isn't that a knee ligament? Cheesy

Although I think he's the best thing that's happened to the Labour Party since Jim Callaghan in the late 70's a very high proportion of Joe Public can't stand him so I doubt it'll help arch opportunist Miliband very much.
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #66 on: February 08, 2015, 07:46:33 PM »

Politicus is correct; most Tories are firmly opposed to electoral reform of any kind.

Most Labour tribalists (which ultimately is most of the party) are also strongly in favour of FPTP. That voting system skews things towards the big two parties in the UK in a fairly extreme way.

For example in 2010 the Tories and Labour got 36% and 29% of the popular vote respectively. Proportionally that should have won them 234 and 189 seats. With FPTP they actually won 306 and 258 seats.

You can see from just this one example why both parties would change the FPTP system over their dead bodies.
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #67 on: February 10, 2015, 11:51:41 AM »


AV isn't a proportional system though. In fact in some ways it's FPTP on speed as it can easily result in an already one sided result being even more one sided Shocked

The Lib Dems were foolish to agree to a referendum on AV in 2010 (as well as foolish to agree to a number of essentially Tory policies in key areas at the same time... although that's a whole other discussion Cheesy).

I remember at the time William Hague told the Libs it was the Tories final offer on this issue and they could take it or leave it. In hindsight they should have called the Tories bluff as they were in quite a strong negotiating position at the time and insisted on a more proportional system being offered on the referendum ballot paper.
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #68 on: February 11, 2015, 03:20:14 PM »

It's amazing Gorgeous George has had any sort of career in politics after this episode in the presence of a certain late Iraqi leader Shocked

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIy_GmvUElE

He also comes across a slightly mad and very angry on shows like Question Time. A bit of a nutter? Hmm... yes I think so Cheesy
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #69 on: February 12, 2015, 11:24:18 AM »

Presumably if Lib Dem pressure in 2010 had got a PR referendum, it would have faced exactly the same Tory misrepresentation as the AV referendum did. At least there is still the remote chance that at some future date PR will re-emerge on to the agenda, which would have been prevented if a PR referendum had been lost.

PR for Westminster elections is probably inevitable given the ongoing decline in the Tories' and Labour's vote share. That decline generally makes hung parliaments more likely and as all the smaller parties are in favour of it the two big parties will come under ever increasing pressure to adopt it as a condition of their support in a potential coalition government.

My prediction is we'll have FPTP for the next three UK general elections then some form of PR thereafter (with probably something similar to the system used to elect the Scottish parliament).
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #70 on: February 13, 2015, 10:11:27 AM »

Providing stable government when the country needed it, not foolish

Even at the cost of the Lib Dems losing 2/3 of their vote?

Absolutely.

If they had flunked the responsibility of government when the country needed political stability they would have been seen as a complete irrelevance and cowardly to boot.

My own view is that this election will be a set back (perhaps even a big one) but only a temporary one. The public will likely view them more seriously after May 2015 because of their time in government and in the medium term they could recover quite strongly. For that to happen though they need a period on the opposition benches and a new leader.

The other thing looking beyond this election is that the current UKIP and SNP surges may well turn out to be temporary. If we have an in/out EU referendum in 2017 that will shoot UKIP's fox, and once the afterglow of the Scottish independence referendum dies down the SNP could regress back to their long term poll average of between 20-30% in Scotland.
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #71 on: February 14, 2015, 07:24:35 AM »


The Conservatives and the Conservative supporting press don't need to try so hard. Ed Miliband is a weak prime ministerial candidate and everybody knows it.
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #72 on: February 16, 2015, 12:15:50 PM »

Excellent article from Andrew Rawnsley about the Conservative fund raising ball held last week:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/feb/15/tories-black-white-ball-fundraiser-rich-arrogance

As is this comment from a poster underneath it which probably explains why they somewhat mysteriously cling on to the status as one of the big political parties of the UK:

"A bit like Millwall fans, everyone hates us but we don't care, the Tories are saying 'We are rich, so are our donors, and we don't give a sh**t about the rest of you'.

The fact they still manage to attract 32% of support in the latest opinion polls is a source of mystery to me. I'd suspect a large percentage of their number are born, anti-union Labour haters"
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #73 on: February 18, 2015, 04:46:53 PM »

Should we have state funding for UK political parties to level the financial playing field somewhat (and have less buying of influence over policy) or whether the status quo is generally okey dokey? Smiley

2010 General Election spending:

Conservatives...... £16.6m
Labour.................. £8.0m
Liberal Democrats £4.7m
UKIP..................... £0.7m
SNP...................... £0.3m

The Standards In Public life Committee recommended in 2011 state funding of £3 per vote for the parties, representing £23m a year over five years. This amounts to 50p per elector a year, little more than the cost of a first-class stamp Cheesy
 
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #74 on: February 28, 2015, 10:40:22 AM »

Ed Milliband's principal rival was his older brother David. David's reputation has risen because he was not elected, but I always thought that Ed was better at simulating normal human behaviour than David was. No doubt if David had been elected, the general opinion now would be that Ed would have been the better option.

A truly dreadful field. I would not have voted for any of them, even if I had been a Labour supporter. However, if absolutely forced to choose, I would concede that Ed was the least worst of them.

That's got to be a joke right? Shocked

Ed won because he was the more left wing candidate compared to David. That's why certain lefty trade unions recommended him in their ballots without mentioning his brother. Democratic huh? lol

Labour has a rich tradition of voting the more lefty candidate as leader. Harold Wilson won in 1963 because he aligned himself with Aneurin Bevan in the late 40's. Michael Foot and Neil Kinnock were the lefty candidates in 1980 and 1983 respectively and Jim Callaghan won in 1976 because he was seen as a friend of the unions (ironic I know).

Only when they got desperate after 4 election defeats did the Labour movement start electing "right wingers" to the party leadership (John Smith in 1992 and Tony Blair in 1994).

David would have been dull, boring and wooden (as is his personality) but I'm certain his approval ratings would have been light years ahead of Ed's right now had he won the leadership in 2010 because he looked and sounded the part of a potential prime minister. 

What appeals to the Labour movement internally is very often not what appeals to the British public as a whole.
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