Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[ElectionsGuy]

I wonder if Jindal will try and run for Senate lol

He said he wouldn't.

[ElectionsGuy]

Edwards will probably kick it up to 56 or 57% considering most of what's left is Baton Rouge and New Orleans and they are 65% and 89% Edwards respectively.

[ElectionsGuy]

John Kennedy (R) will probably run for Senate and win.

The primary between Kennedy and Angelle will be pretty rough.

If the AG race tells us anything, Kennedy being a former Democrat probably will be brought up again and again.

[ElectionsGuy]

Ouachita and Jefferson are 50/50 right now.

[ElectionsGuy]

Jefferson flipped to 51-49 Edwards with only two precincts left.

[ElectionsGuy]

Jefferson Parish precinct map.

PATHETIC numbers in Metairie for Vitter. I didn't expect this much of a landslide.

[ElectionsGuy]

Did a quick 2012 Pres vs 2015 Gov in Paint using 50%, 60%, and 70% thresholds (non-atlas colors).

2012:



2015:

[ElectionsGuy]

Final numbers with all precincts in:

Edwards: 646,860 (56.1%)
Vitter: 505,929 (43.9%)

Nungesser: 628,864 (55.4%)
Holden: 506,578 (44.6%)

Landry: 610,433 (56.3%)
Caldwell (inc.): 473,869 (43.7%)

[ElectionsGuy]

From 2012 to 2015, the largest swing by far was Cameron parish (74 points!). Its a small 90% white parish in Cajun country, so not as surprising but that's still huge. Other huge swings include Jefferson Davis (56.5) , Avoyelles (54.7), and Allen (51.5), all in Acadania. Parishes in and around the Baton Rouge area and Edwards' district were a hard swing as well. The areas with the least swing were the blackest parishes and many in the north, like Claiborne (17), Sabine (18), Union (19), etc. The north is the deepest south part of the state, so naturally the most polarized and inelastic.

[ElectionsGuy]

So the really amatuer map I made earlier in the thread is on the Wikipedia article for this race. No joke. lol, I feel famous right now

[ElectionsGuy]

So the really amatuer map I made earlier in the thread is on the Wikipedia article for this race. No joke. lol, I feel famous right now

Not anymore. Sorry, ElectionsGuy.

That's good. That was an awful map ^ Very nice county maps!

[ElectionsGuy]

Lots of gerrymandering in that map, but Edwards probably propelled some red-seat Democrats to victory.  Are there any instances where state senate Democrats actually outperformed Edwards in their districts (besides those running unopposed)?

While the district 20 area swung by far the most between the two elections, its not that surprising, considering how Republican they have gone in recent elections (~70%). I'm more surprised that parishes like Jefferson Davis and Allen voted for Edwards.

I wonder how white Catholics voted. Whites overall probably voted 37-38% for Edwards, but in some of those parishes Edwards may as well have won the white vote. I'm guessing 55-45 Vitter, while protestants were more like 75-25 Vitter.

[ElectionsGuy]

That voter registration. Did a majority of independents still vote for Vitter, or are there still plenty of DINOs who voted for Vitter?

Looks like Edwards got just around 38% of the white vote with that racial makeup.