ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
Posts: 21,102
Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65
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« on: July 17, 2015, 09:40:51 PM » |
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I think it depends on two main things.
- If the Republican is popular or unpopular
- If the Democrats can fix their midterm turnout problem.
If Democrats can fix their turnout problem and the Republican is unpopular, they can have very limited losses (net 1 or 2 losses), if they do one of those they can limit their losses to 3 or 4. Worst case scenario, the Republican is popular and the 2018 election is like 2002, more favorable to the incumbent party. Still, we haven't seen that since... 2002. In any case, even if Democrats pick up the Senate in 2016, it clearly looks the Republicans will take it back in 2018.
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