My UK Election Predictions

[Silent Hunter]

I'm pretty certain that Avon no longer exists as a county.

[Silent Hunter]

I said King would get a rough ride here. I wasn't aware that she is Jewish through her mother.

This is going to turn nasty- remember King voted for the Iraq war.

Fitzpatrick will walk Poplar and Canning Town, but Respect will probably save their deposit.

[Silent Hunter]

BG&B and Hornchurch will be THE seats to watch in East London this time around.

Hornchurch is a bellwether- it was last on the losing side in 1964.

The borough it's in, Havering (the reason behind the name of the borough can be found here http://www.civicheraldry.mcmail.com/great_london.html) is a Tory minority administration and very, very white.
http://www.londonelects.org.uk/resources/boroughs/havering-5.html
http://www.londonelects.org.uk/resources/boroughs/havering-6.html

Romford and Upminster are safe Tory seats (for the time being- Rosindell gets Labour Harold Hill in his new boundaries next time).

[Silent Hunter]

Here's my overall prediction:
Labour get 37% of the vote and a majority of 75-100.
There's a good deal of anti-Labour tactical voting, which helps the Liberals more than the Tories.
The Tories get just under 200 seats.

[Silent Hunter]

Latest Guardian/ICM Poll
Labour 40 (I was wrong, we have hit 40 again)
Conservatives 31
Lib Dems 21

Which equals a majority of 156, with a Tory net loss.

[Silent Hunter]

Done any more Peter?

I'm putting all my predictions in an Excel Document.