So I would say this is mapping most closely to 2008 without the financial crisis, which would probably have been inverse 2004 or 50-48 Obama in the end.
I can definitely agree with this statement. That's about where I see this race headed right now.
The ironic thing is that Obama would probably be in much better shape today if the crisis didn't happen. Dems wouldn't have come close to getting 60 senate seats, so Obama couldn't have told the GOP to shove it in 2009. And budget deficits wouldn't be half this bad in a 2001-07 economy, even if you hold all spending constant.
Wrong, Obama needed 60 to pass PPACA.
He had it until MA changed hands with Scott Brown - then things got a bit more difficult to pass it.
