UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Silent Hunter]

what the actual  has this thread managed to degenerate into?

Oh, there's much worse on Twitter.

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With Sinn Fein not taking their seats and DUP support, the Conservatives would have an overall majority without the adjustment.

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The Tories had to rely on Unionist under Major and it certainly won't be backing a Corbyn-led Labour.

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  I forget what the numbers are of people voting by mail usually is. Also, by this time, with less than a week to go how many of them have likely already voted?

I think it's c.20%

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Latest ComRes poll: Conservatives still +12

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The Survation poll would probably give the Tories a majority once the DUP is added in and Sinn Fein is taken out. Also it would depend on swing levels in marginals.

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"Corbyn is unelectable, he wouldn't even crack 30%"

Agree, that has changed. But he will, in all likelihood, still have been on the losing sides of two 'elections'.

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Oh no...

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Given the sort of election this is the swing matters more than the lead. And the implied swings from the latest poll of each outfit are as follows...

Survation +3.0
YouGov +1.5
Norstat +1.5
Ipsos/MORI +1.0
Opinium +0.5
SurveyMonkey +0.5
Panelbase -0.5
ORB -1.0
Kantar -1.5
ICM -2.0
ComRes -2.5

If you do the average there's a 0.05% swing towards Labour. So, barely anything changes compared to 2015?

If the polling is correct, yes. Though you'd see a few seats ping around if that were to happen.

However there are two major caveats and both concern the Conservative vote. The first is that London polling suggests they're losing a small amount of support or only level on last time (seemingly due to a loss of support to the LibDems as the picture for Labour there is about the same as nationally; perhaps a Brexit factor), while in Scotland the polling suggests that they could as much as double their support from last time.

A uniform 3% swing to Labour would gain them around 22 seats, 21 from the Conservatives. That would put the Conservatives on 310 seats, 16 seats short of a majority and probably able to function as a minority government.

However, Labour actually have to win Con-held marginals and hold their own vulnerable seats, as well as prevent the Conservatives from knocking off too many SNP held targets.

Pulling all three off seems rather unlikely.

[Silent Hunter]

Well, if we hear the words "Recount in Houghton and Sunderland South", it will be a very bad night for Labour.

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With only 8 seats, the Lib Dems aren't seen as viable options in a lot of places, so those wanting to remove the Tories are voting Labour instead.

Also, that Survation poll would probably give the Tories an overall majority - the Lib Dems are estimated on Electoral Calculus to be down to 1 seats (!) as are Plaid Cymru. UKIP and the Greens would be wiped out and with any SNP losses to the Tories in Scotland, Labour's projected 14 gains won't be enough.

Labour need to get the Tory majority down to -20 at least to have any chance of a SNP deal working and they are just not there.

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Think we are waiting for YouGov still.

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So, based on the polls, we're looking at a Hung parliament or small Tory majority up to a Tory majority of 80+? But most likely a modest Tory majority

A Tory +4 win is likely still a Tory majority, given the way Corbyn's votes are dispersed. A hung parliament seems very unlikely.

Precisely; Labour have to flip 30 seats from the Tories just to eliminate May's "Ulster Firewall" and make a SNP coalition possible.

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And Labour will end this campaign without a single poll lead.

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When will the exit poll be released US Eastern Time?

5pm.

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Relatively well for Labour in this election will be gaining seats overall...

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Some of us have been here long enough to remember that Zogby poll in 2004 putting Kerry ahead...

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Some of us have been here long enough to remember that Zogby poll in 2004 putting Kerry ahead...

Yes, but IIRC, it was 52-48 for Kerry and the final PV was 51-48 for Bush...

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Apparently Survation's release has been delayed due to a fracas in the stats room!

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Also worth noting that even a stopped clock is right twice a day... Past performance is not a guide to future accuracy.

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It's 12 minutes to midnight and Survation still haven't published...

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Speak of the devil...


I think with the reduced SNP share, that's a Tory majority.