2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[Nym90]

I can't hate on the Tough Nerd too much, even if he's a Republican

I agree, he'd be the least bad of the GOP nominees, and you gotta love his ad campaign at least. Cox and Hoekstra tore each other apart trying to win the "true conservative" mantle, I think Snyder will sneak through.

Hoping for a Bernero win in the Dem primary. Dillon was epic fail as House Speaker IMO.

Also glad to see Benishek up in my CD. He's a loon who will be much easier to defeat than Allen.

[Nym90]

Regarding MI-1, Benishek is from Iron County in the UP, while Allen is from the LP. That explains the results.

I never saw or heard a single Allen ad on radio or TV here in Marquette, while there were plenty of Benishek ads. Not sure if that was reversed in the Traverse City market or not, but I wouldn't be surprised.

[Nym90]

Benishek is the tea party candidate, probably helped him in the more rural parts of the LP also (I realize most folks would consider this entire district rural).

Given what's left to count, I doubt Allen can make up the difference of roughly 1,000 votes as it currently stands. The only really pro Allen area I see outstanding is Mackinac County, but Allen didn't win the larger Chippewa County by 1,000 votes, plus there seems to be some scattered UP precincts left.

[Nym90]

Who are supposed to be the strongest candidates in the general for MI-1 in both parties?

The Dem primary was uncontested, nominee will be State Rep. Gary McDowell. He's a pro-life pro-gun Dem in the Stupak mold, a good fit ideologically and geographically for the district (he's from the eastern UP).

Allen is the establishment GOP candidate who didn't actually live in the district until recently, he lived in Traverse City (which was part of the old 1st pre-2000, but was drawn out), though his State Senate district encompasses a good portion of it. Benishek is the outsider tea party candidate who has never run for office before but is good at saying the buzzwords that the tea party folks want to hear. So who is more electable depends on your view of whether base turnout vs. appealing to swing voters matters more, no polling has been done for the general here that I know of.

[Nym90]

Benishek is the tea party candidate, probably helped him in the more rural parts of the LP also (I realize most folks would consider this entire district rural).

The tea party phenomenon is almost universally a GOP suburb phenomenon (it might have effect in historically GOP areas but I haven't seen it), so I doubt that given the UP.

The latter observation (which I haven't observed so far) maybe explains why he did better in the LP than Allen did in the UP.  How's that for confusing.

Yeah a bit confusing. There really isn't anything in this district that would come anywhere close to being defined as a suburb. Traverse City and its environs aren't in the 1st, I guess some of the Bay City outlying areas could qualify, maybe, if you really stretch the definition.

But yeah, you are right in your assumption that the tea party hasn't really been that visible on the ground here, but that doesn't mean that they can't have fairly strong influence in a low turnout primary in as you say historically Dem areas where a lot of folks still vote in the Dem primary. Would have to compare turnout of D vs. R primaries in these areas to see if that theory holds any water.

Might just come down to as I mentioned the ad exposure that Benishek had here while Allen was invisible, a pretty big miscalculation on Allen's part. I know Benishek got some national publicity in conservative circles for getting into the race before Stupak dropped out, probably a big reason why an otherwise unknown candidate was able to fundraise as well as he did.

[Nym90]

Yep, very true Sam.

Though as I check the results again, Benishek is now all of 36 votes ahead with 28 precincts yet to be counted. Also not sure if absentees are included in the totals. Of course, the above analysis still stands, this race really shouldn't have been close considering the profiles of the two candidates.

[Nym90]

So wait, Allen lives outside the district, right? Doesn't that mean that he lost because he (and, presuming he's married, his wife) couldn't vote for himself? I realize that the final count will probably not end in a 1-vote margin for Benishek, but it's still a wonderful thought.

Anyway, here are some quick and dirty maps of a few of the House primaries:

He lived in Traverse City until the time of declaring his candidacy. I think he always had a summer home in Emmet County and just made it his official residence.

[Nym90]

But yeah, GOP chances in MI-1 certainly took a hit. Benishek would be a much weaker candidate in the general geographically considering that the majority of the population of the district lives much closer to McDowell, not to mention he's much more conservative and inexperienced thus more likely to make a gaffe and make himself the issue. If Allen ultimately wins the nomination the regionalism plays to McDowell's advantage in the UP.

Plus if there's a recount and the battle for the nomination drags on that obviously doesn't help.

[Nym90]

Another observation is that Benishek tended to do well in the same places as Cox in the western U.P. They are both similar ideologically and had Tea Party backing, which could be a coincidence, or not.

[Nym90]

Benishek was the teabagger right?

Yes. It sucks. But there are being a string of disappointments as seen through the lens of this particular Pubbie.  All of this positive reinforcement of the nutter wing is discouraging and demoralizing.

From what I've read (linked a while back), due to geography, he'll probably make the better Republican candidate in November, though.  Allen was a troll (from under the bridge on the main part of Michigan).  Benishek is a Yooper from the Western UP.  Yoopers vote for other Yoopers, but aren't as likely to vote for a troll.  MI-01 trolls are more Republican and will vote for Yoopers. 

Stupak is a Yooper from the Western UP on the Wisconsin border.  The Democrat nominee in this race is a Yooper from the Sault Ste. Marie area.

To a certain extent that's true, yes, although the majority of the district's population is actually in the LP, and thus closer to and more familiar with McDowell than Benishek.

Benishek is far more conservative. I guess it's up to the individual to decide whether the extra base enthusiasm that inspires makes up for the swing voters it scares away.