Exactly. The people who pay the most attention to when states are called are the people who are most likely to vote for their candidate no matter what. People who don't care enough to vote if they know their guy is going to lose are more likely to be the ones who don't watch the election returns on election night, or if they do at the very least to not be hanging on every word.
We have to realize that we are political junkies here, and a lot of people don't watch election night returns with nearly the vigor that we do.