Its started to seem to me that a woman or minority pick could reek of tokenism, and that the GOP nominee would be better off ensuring some moderation in rhetoric in regards to immigration, abortion, etc.
You pretty much answered your own question.
It doesn't matter if Rubio/Martinez get picked for Veep, because Hispanics/women are still turned off by the GOP's platform/rhetoric. It's for the same reason that despite Reagan's amnesty for 3 million illegals, Hispanics turned right around and gave Dukakis a higher % in 1988 than they did for Reagan in 1984.
Similarly, it doesn't matter if Mia Love/Herman Cain/Bobby Jindal/Nikki Haley are nominated for anything, because blacks and Asians are still hurt by the GOP's policies and turned off by nativist tone.
The truth is that (on economics) until Hispanics and blacks close the income gap with whites and feel economically secure, they will continue voting for the party that doesn't want to destroy safety nets. On social issues, the nativist tone and "tough on crime = throw black people into jail" will continue to continue to alienate them, and to an extent Asians as well on immigration.
