Safe Republican States

[barfbag]

I'll be posting threads on different groups of states over the next few days. Let's discuss first, safe Republican or as some would call them dark red states. What makes them always vote Republican in presidential elections? Answers are obvious but let's have a debate or discussion.

These states only please.

Utah
Wyoming
Idaho
Oklahoma
Nebraska
Alaska
North Dakota

Also please do not include any polling data on this. Let's go by real votes.

[barfbag]

Thanks for the discussion and keep it coming. I felt the "Where do the states fall?" thread got off topic by talking about the future so much.

[barfbag]

I'm going to make new threads for solid and likely GOP states too. First though, I'll be making a thread for safe Democratic states. I'd like to break these down pretty far compared to what we're doing. Let's stick to UT, WY, ID, OK, NE, AK, and ND.

[barfbag]

I decided against including states like Texas and South Carolina that could trend D in the future. I also did not include the Dakotas as Obama came within 10% in 2008, and do elect a lot of Democrats down-ticket.

50% saturation means it is safe now, 30% means that it is not safe but will likely be safe within the next decade or so.

Light blue = "safe, unless Hillary runs"

The Appalachian states you have highlighted certainly are heading that way within the next generation.

[barfbag]

You guys this isn't a debate over which states should be in a category, but a discussion on what makes the above states as red as they are. Everyone is missing the point of this thread.

[barfbag]

One big thing when looking at the internal geographics of these states is that hardly anyone lives there. With a lesser population, things don't become as political and therefore there isn't a high demand for structure and policy. People have their elbow space and prefer this way of life. Guns and religion are what they have as essentials.

[barfbag]

I'm going to post this in both of Barfy's threads so he understands the true nature of our hopelessly divided Presidential politics; as well as the dire nature of the electoral situation his beloved GOP faces. 

In a race that is within 2-3 pts nationally (aka competitive), these are the only states that can be considered up for grabs. 

263-191. 

Sure, you might find SPECIFIC candidates like a Christie (making NJ somewhat competitive) or a Clinton (all the sudden Arkansas doesn't think the Dems are the devil anymore)... but for the most part, this is how it will shake out in the end. 

It's basically a situation where the GOP either has to go up a few points nationally (tough for either party in recent history; minus 2008, when the GOP had basically just ruined everything) or run the table in the swing states. 

This certainly has historical precedent.  See the early 1900s and the 1980s, when the GOP had an absolute stranglehold on the Electoral College. 

Please explain to us in depth detail what your post has to do with the voting patterns and political dynamics of AK, NE, OK, UT, ID, WY, and ND. You might as well have described why you're pro-choice on a thread about arctic drilling. All we're doing is discussing how and why the above mentioned states vote the way they do. There is no need for anyone to think more into this than necessary. Thank you.

[barfbag]

I'm going to post this in both of Barfy's threads so he understands the true nature of our hopelessly divided Presidential politics; as well as the dire nature of the electoral situation his beloved GOP faces. 

In a race that is within 2-3 pts nationally (aka competitive), these are the only states that can be considered up for grabs. 

263-191. 

Sure, you might find SPECIFIC candidates like a Christie (making NJ somewhat competitive) or a Clinton (all the sudden Arkansas doesn't think the Dems are the devil anymore)... but for the most part, this is how it will shake out in the end. 

It's basically a situation where the GOP either has to go up a few points nationally (tough for either party in recent history; minus 2008, when the GOP had basically just ruined everything) or run the table in the swing states. 

This certainly has historical precedent.  See the early 1900s and the 1980s, when the GOP had an absolute stranglehold on the Electoral College. 

Please explain to us in depth detail what your post has to do with the voting patterns and political dynamics of AK, NE, OK, UT, ID, WY, and ND. You might as well have described why you're pro-choice on a thread about arctic drilling. All we're doing is discussing how and why the above mentioned states vote the way they do. There is no need for anyone to think more into this than necessary. Thank you.

You can't call people disagreeing with you off topic. In what world is listing one's opinion of the Safe Republican states in a thread called Safe Republican states the equivalent of discussing abortion in a thread about arctic drilling? You're on crack.

Look all I'm asking you is what you think about how the above states vote and your thoughts on their internal political structure.

[barfbag]

It is pretty simple. We don't see much variation in these states politically other than climatic livability. Our discussions should get more in depth with more demographics and economics to include as we go down the line.

[barfbag]

Looks like I made an error, I mean to say the western side is great plains and the eastern side is southern.

Also why isn't Kansas Safe Republican?

They missed my cut off by one point. Historically Kansas and Nebraska are probably the most Republican though.

[barfbag]

Looks like I made an error, I mean to say the western side is great plains and the eastern side is southern.

Also why isn't Kansas Safe Republican?

They missed my cut off by one point. Historically Kansas and Nebraska are probably the most Republican though.

Is this because Kansas wasn't as republican as Nebraska during the Bush elections? They practically were the same during the Obama elections. The margin of victory of Kansas matched the margin of victory in Nebraska (2008), and the margin of victory of Nebraska was 0.1% more republican than the margin of victory in Kansas (2012).

Yes pretty much. I've averaged recent elections and made cut offs. The only year Kansas was a complete landslide compared to usual was 2004 lately. I suspect it remains 60/40. Nebraska is just a few points redder. Would any of you like to live in these states?

[barfbag]

Would any of you like to live in these states?

I'd love to.  I grew up in a rural part of a rural state and like the peace and quiet that comes with it.  Even though I think I'd miss having three grocery stores, plus a Target, Wal-Mart, and Lowes all within a 5 min. drive.  I remember growing up and the closest store was a tiny mom and pop all purpose store, and it was 15 min. away.  If you wanted to go to a big chain grocery store or Wal-Mart, it was another 15 min. drive past that.

What state was that? Did you know that 90% of Americans live within 15 minutes of a Walmart?

[barfbag]

What state was that? Did you know that 90% of Americans live within 15 minutes of a Walmart?

NE corner of Mississippi.  Practically on the state line with Alabama.  You also have to remember that this was during the 70's and 80's, but the closest Walmart is still just over a 30 min. drive.

Ok that makes sense then. Growing up I experienced the rise of Walmart in every single town within an hour of me. Everywhere we went growing up, we saw a Walmart open up near.

[barfbag]

Does the average guy in such states see promoting "tradition" by the Government as a Government product?

Government product?  No, hardly.  Social conservatives see government promoting tradition as the government protecting his freedom to be traditional. 

Yes this country was founded on integrity and it is our duty to make sure people can practice their conservatism and promote traditional values at all costs.

[barfbag]

If the current trends continue, Alaska won't be on this list after 2016.

True it will be light red. Most of us highly doubt it will be winnable for Democrats though. I can see it being like Montana or Missouri at the very best. Trends don't go on forever.