Either late February or early March.
How is he going to emerge as the presumptive nominee after only four contests, one of which he has already lost???
I think he has this locked up, but that's just ridiculous.
I think Rubio will win both South Carolina and Nevada, and I think he has a serious shot at winning New Hampshire as well. After these 4 contests, most of the establishment candidates (probably all except perhaps Bush) will have dropped out, further increasing his momentum. Also, about 90% of all endorsements coming from elected officials over the next 3-5 weeks will go to Rubio. Suddenly, the massive attention that the media has solely been giving to Trump over the past 7 months will start heading Rubio's way instead. In other words, all stars will align. And Rubio's brilliant debate skills will further cement this image. I've always believed that either Rubio or Bush would be the eventual nominee, and after I lost all my faith in Bush in October after a number of horrific debate performances, I've never had any doubt that Rubio eventually would emerge as the nominee.
I think Rubio will lose the general to Hillary though. I'm unsure if he will try again in 2020, because it's just not common that a losing candidate tries his luck again already in the next election. However, due to his very young age, I'm pretty sure that he will run for the nomination once more, probably in 2024 when there is no sitting president to obstruct his chances. If he wins that nomination, which I think is highly likely that he would, I think his chances in the general would be at least 50%. By then, he would be recognized as a statesman. Perhaps he's already been elected Governor of Florida or something by then. Perhaps he will be running as a sitting Governor. 2024 might be an all-latino general, in the case that Hillary does in fact chose Julian Castro as her running mate, something she's been flirting with for a long time already. However, after 16 years of Democratic presidents, it would be very hard even for a charming young lad like Julian to beat an optimistic, visionary Rubio which at that point will be drowning in political experience, both foreign and domestic. By 2024, Rubio should long have abandoned his ultra controversial abortion stance as well, if not it might be the sole thing that could derail his campaign in the general. (More likely than Rubio, Ted Cruz as this year's runner up, will be the presumptive GOP nominee in 2020. He will probably win the primary, yet lose the general badly. The GOP will get its 2nd Goldwater experience, which will lead the party onto a whole different path, finally staring the inevitable future in its eyes. After such a humiliating defeat, what remains of the Tea Party and other party reactionaries (call it the Sarah Palin meets Santorum fraction) will be put on the sidelines in shame and disgust, even from the voters themselves who will be so tired of constantly losing at that point.)
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