The Gay Empire State

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What's up with that guy in Buffalo who is as doomed next election as Cao was? If he's going to try he could make an appeal to Moderate Hero-esque Democrats. If he votes against it he'll just be seen as a typical Republican.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What's up with that guy in Buffalo who is as doomed next election as Cao was? If he's going to try he could make an appeal to Moderate Hero-esque Democrats. If he votes against it he'll just be seen as a typical Republican.

There appear to be a lot of blacks in that district. Doubt he's looking for the white latte liberal vote.

Well the blacks aren't going to vote for him anyway. If as many still remain in his district after redistricting he's even more dead.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No decision basically seems like "haha no" to me.

Skelos is trying to figure out what Cuomo is going to do. If there is a vote and it fails, the Senate Map is going to the courts. If Gay Marriage cant pass with a 32-30 GOP majority it can not pass with a larger one, so signing a GOP map would be effectively telling Gays and Gay donors to wait until 2023. And that would be fatal for a Cuomo Presidential bid, especially when expectations have been raised so high and the issue is so high profile.

So if Skelos wants to block it the best bet is to not hold a vote. But he doesn't know if that would piss Cuomo off enough to still send the legislative lines off to the courts.

Thing is, even if you preserve the current map the GOP's loss of it eventually is almost inevitable, there aren't any vulnerable Democrats and they already hold two seats on paper they have no chance in, plus things like an all Republican delegation from Long Island obviously aren't sustainable in a half-decent Democratic year.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No decision basically seems like "haha no" to me.

Skelos is trying to figure out what Cuomo is going to do. If there is a vote and it fails, the Senate Map is going to the courts. If Gay Marriage cant pass with a 32-30 GOP majority it can not pass with a larger one, so signing a GOP map would be effectively telling Gays and Gay donors to wait until 2023. And that would be fatal for a Cuomo Presidential bid, especially when expectations have been raised so high and the issue is so high profile.

So if Skelos wants to block it the best bet is to not hold a vote. But he doesn't know if that would piss Cuomo off enough to still send the legislative lines off to the courts.

Thing is, even if you preserve the current map the GOP's loss of it eventually is almost inevitable, there aren't any vulnerable Democrats and they already hold two seats on paper they have no chance in, plus things like an all Republican delegation from Long Island obviously aren't sustainable in a half-decent Democratic year.

There is another possibility that needs to be considered. Given how late in the year redistricting is being left to, there is nor requirement that new lines be drawn for the legislature by 2012. Congressional lines yes, but I could easily see a court deciding to hold the 2012 elections under the current lines in the event of a dispute. There is plenty of precedent for it.

Well then if the Democrats knock off Grisanti and at least one Long Island Republican they have the Senate and then can draw a gerrymander.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Oh btw I just played around and the best type of district I can get for Grisanti without endangering neighboring Republicans is like 65% Obama. That's certainly an improvement over 77% Obama, but it's obviously not a district where I'd bet on any Republican.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Twitter has never provided any benefit for a politician and tons of mishaps. Any smart politician should simply never ever use Twitter. Actually replace "politician" with "person"...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

WTF?

http://twitter.com/#!/ball4ny/status/81912792394899456

Why WTF?  Greg Ball is in his 30s - very much on the young side for the NYS Senate, which is chock full of seniors.  He's also on the fence and fairly active on Twitter.  It makes sense for him to ask for input on how to vote.

Of those on the fence, he seems the most concerned about religious exemptions.  Given the old-school Catholic makeup of a lot of his district, that position makes a lot of sense, and is something that the bill needs to do a lot more of to obtain passage.  Republicans simply aren't going to vote for a bill that potentially forces Catholic adoption services to place children in married gay households or Knights of Columbus halls to host gay marriage receptions.

LOL. Isn't Cuomo Catholic?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I should know better than to post anything other than supporting gay rights on this website.

Get off the cross, the wood is needed.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I still think they're going to put all the blacks in Buffalo into Tim Kennedy's district, so it probably won't matter either way.

But that just means that the white Democrats in Kennedy's seat end up in Grisanti's, so while the seat is significantly less Dem, it's not enough to make a difference. I played around on DRA and the best you can get that district is like 62% Obama without endangering nearby Republicans is like 62% Obama.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That'd still be a swing district at best. There's just no way to limit the Democrats to only one seat in the Buffalo area.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't know whose private reaction would be more amusing: JCL or BushOklahoma.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is a great day for New York, and a sad day for JCL is a great day for humanity.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So why did Joseph Robach, who represents a 65-35 Obama district, vote against it?

Someone needs to be primaried.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So why did Joseph Robach, who represents a 65-35 Obama district, vote against it?

Someone needs to be primaried.

No, he's a Republican.

Then he needs to just lose.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is a great day for New York, and a sad day for JCL is THEREFORE, a great day for humanity.

If you are all so glad for gays being allowed marriage
Then loosen the draconian gun laws.

Uh, how the hell are those two things even remotely related?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It'd be nice if the guy could at least learn how to use BBCode format when writing his inane crap.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I kind of wish there was just so I could see the numbers in Williamsburg and the East Village.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Good for New York state.

If there was a referendum to overturn this, would it succeed?  

Doubt it, the last couple polls put support for same-sex marriage at just under 60% with opposition in the mid to upper 30's.

How much would it get in Williamsburg and the East Village?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

He also doesn't know the process of getting a referendum on the ballot in New York. Thus, ignore.

Sorry, I'm new-ish. Is he always like this or are there issues he's more sensible on?

No. He's even a Birther, lol.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Anyone with a link to yea/nay?

Saland, Grisanti are the two flippers, everything else stayed as it was (Lanza, Ball voted No)

Thx. Glad some Upstate Repubs. had the guts to break ranks.

Have to say the reps on LI really disappointed on this.  The majority of those in the Assembly from LI voted against, and not a single LI Senator voted in favor.

I thought Hannon did?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm a Christian and will proudly vote against banning it in 2012 in my state. If there are any organized protests of false churches (Catholic, Mormon or fundie ones that support it) like there were in California with Prop 8 I will be there.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It was arguably the gay lobby that took down Sue Kelly in 2006.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hmmmm, too bad Cuomo's not in the Senate, he'd be a better leader than Harry Reid.

Gay marriage benefits the economy so it's logical for Wall Street types to back it. New York will get an economic boon as a result.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So is Robach f**ked now?