Harry...no offence intended, but what does their MN result in 2004 have to do with anything? Unless used to support the point that Mason-Dixon is not totally infalable...
I think that was just his point.
A few more to make:
-With 12 polls, there's more than a 50/50 chance one of them is a 1 in 20. That's a very likely explanation for Rhode Island
-I was worried about Montana, but the new Rasmussen has Tester up. So while it's within the MOE, it appears the tie could just be MOE movement, and I take solace in that Burns has yet to lead in a single poll. So right now I'd be on Tester being slightly ahead, and probably winning by 1-2 points, possibly less than a point though.
-I've suspected that M-D is oversamping Republicans, whether there's a reason or this is accidental we don't know, but these numbers are a bit out of whack of other pollsters. This means that either the above is true, or they've caught on to something everyone else hasn't. I'm hoping it's #1. But note that Brown's lead and Klobuchar's lead in their last poll are much smaller than other polls, lending evidence to this. I also believe that while Ford is down and probably is toast, it's probably not by 12, if I had to pick a number I'd say 8.
-I'm a bit worried about Maryland, but Cardin's still ahead, and Steele hasn't led in a single poll since a SUSA one a month ago, and SUSA is probably off here. Perhaps Cardin's lead is smaller than the other polls, but I'd be shocked if he isn't ahead by more than a razor thin margin. Another good thing is O'Malley running for governor, this means he'll have the Baltimore machine working full stop, and Cardin will benefit too.
