New Tradesports rankings

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

LOL, Thompson at 10%

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Anyone else think Huckabee is undervalued? He's not likely to win, but he'll still take at least a couple Super Tuesday states most likely which might boost his momentum slightly. He should at least be running more than 0.2 higher than Giuliani. Buying a few shares of him might be a good idea since they could easily double in value.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's probably the media projections that he'll still win a slight majority of delegates.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Big surge for Gore, as Intraders ponder the "Verily scenario":

Dem. nomination:

Obama 56.0
Clinton 43.0
Gore 3.5

winning individual:

McCain 36.0
Obama 34.1
Clinton 27.8
Gore 2.0
Bloomberg 0.6
Huckabee 0.5

Nice to know that my tips move markets

Even if it were to happen, I don't expect that Gore would be the choice. But perhaps.

Who else? Edwards? (Actually he would be a strong possibility especially if the plan is put into motion by Obama to create an Edwards/Obama ticket.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well if it happens and they decide to give the nomination to some sort of "elder statesman" who actually wants to be president, looks like Walter's dream of a Chris Dodd candidacy will come true after all.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama's up over 68. He might hit where he was after Iowa after Tuesday.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

On RCP's mock InTrade I bought 400 shares of Obama to win before Saturday (figuring he'd rise after that) and sold 300 of them foolishly last night (Should've had more faith in Maine.) But my 100 are doing great and will rise even more after Tuesday. I got a good number for Obama winning in Virginia, should probably sell some and buy more Obama to win stock.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I also shorted Clinton in Maine, I'll get a nice cashout for that today.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Short Gore for easy money.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

For some reason Hillary is surging. she's up over 8 points to over 33, with Obama dropping the same. What's the reason?

I'm guessing it's just because Obama developed a bit of a bubble which is bursting now. Unless InTraders think RUMORS of an Edwards endorsement are that important, which would be the epitome of overreacting.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama rebounds back to 70. The market is just crazy now.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'd buy myself a lot of Clinton in preparation of Tuesday.

Why? She'll likely lose both states which would just send her numbers lower. The time to buy Clinton is before March 4.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wisconsin is a toss-up, at best, and with the over-reactions of these people, Clinton could gain quite a bit. You might even be able to make some money when Wisconsin isn't called immediately and people start buying Clinton.

How can Wisconsin be anything other than Lean Obama? The electoral laws greatly favor him, he's seriously competing, she isn't, and he leads in every poll that isn't ARG.

Meanwhile if Hillary wins, that means ARG is right while every other pollster is wrong. Think about that.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What happened in 2004 was the independents turned out bigger than expected and voted Edwards. Note Edwards won one congressional district in Wisconsin, also the most affluent and Republican district in the state. Why would Edwards play better in such a place rather than the poor parts of Wisconsin with his whole populist, anti-poverty message? Because there were few Democrats, and the independents and Republicans made up a larger share of the electorate. Also note this district had the third highest turnout despite the worst showing for Democrats in the general election. This year the non-Democrats will obviously favor Obama.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ah, remember me saying you SHOULDN'T buy Clinton before Wisconsin?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

LOL wow, I have no clue what I was thinking there. Edited.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama's probably overvalued in every state except Vermont, but I wouldn't be comfortable shorting in any one besides Rhode island. In Rhode Island I am currently shorting on the mock InTrade.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama now at 85.0, Hillary at 14.7. Obama is at roughly the same spot McCain was at after Florida, and is also now more than 10 points higher than Hillary's peak.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Brutal.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

InTrade has a new contract, for Hillary's "lifeline", that she wins ALL of Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Currently trading at 18.0

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

InTrade has a new contract, for Hillary's "lifeline", that she wins ALL of Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Currently trading at 18.0

Meaning she wins the popular vote or most delegates? Because if it's the latter, that should be at 0.

InTrade only uses the popular vote.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hillary is trading at 60.0 to drop out before the end of March.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

the most likely scenario for Gore winning without being nominated involves Obama being assassinated in September or October and Democrats replacing him with Gore on the ballot.

There's also a higher chance of that happening than of Gore actually being nominated.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Michigan does have a vote coming up (sort of), the district conventions on the 29th, sort of a caucus. It's here that the delegates will be chosen, and there will no doubt be a fight over the uncomitteds. The DNC is not going to seat the current delegation from Michigan (as I pointed out, to do so would be to actually punish Obama for his act taken in support of their rules), so one possible compromise might be to seat the entire delegation in proportion to what the uncommitted delegation gets at the time.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

OK, but I assume those district conventions wouldn't count as a "new primary" as far as Intrade is concerned.  But who knows.

Oh I agree. I'm just saying, that's probably the only way Michigan will get a delegation that's elected in some way. The only other way I see is if they agree to give all the uncommitted to Obama.