gordon smith vs. barack obama.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Isn't Smith a Mormon?

Yep, that's the other strike against him.

Only about 62% of the population said they would even be willing to vote for a Mormon.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Rob probably has one of the best election prediction track records on the site.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You were beyond pompous on the McCain winning PA/Obama underperforming in Philly thing. This comes to mind:

Is that enough to make up over 140k votes? (and most likely more, since Obama seems to be gaining elsewhere.)

If you can prove to me that Obama is getting 140,000 votes (or more) elsewhere, I'll concede that the results here won't make a difference.

The point of that statement was that Obama can't be losing 140k votes in that area alone. Hell the entire population of NE Philly is only 300k-450k depending on definition.

...

What brings up the random 140,000 votes?

Kerry's margin of victory.

McCain is going to cut into that margin elsewhere, my friend.

The whole "my friend" thing itself is rather pompous as is the bold post since that's basically what happened (and note the date too considering Phil always says he switched to predicting an Obama victory in the last month or so.)

Not as pompous as J. J. though I'll grant you, but who is?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think the date is more worthy of note.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Allow me to summarize Phil's last post:
Polls don't mean anything. Even when you have dozens and they all more or less say the same thing. Even though this was true even before the financial meltdown, it was the economic collapse that allowed Obama to win. What matters in my predictions is that I know people. Lots of people. Important people. And they thought this was going close. And they were worried about it.  And that's not anecdotal. I know I've been wrong in the past because of this line of thinking. Furthermore, I like controversy, so I'm going to continue to make predictions by on my same non-anecdotal sources even when this contradicts more scientific methods. So lay off me until the next election when I'll inevitably be wrong again.

Right, yep, that's what I meant. Whatever, guys.

...and then people call me the asshole, saying that I'm too nasty, etc. Or wait...maybe this is one of those "jokes."

You completely ignored his point, which is that the polls showed Obama ahead in PA even before the stock market crash. So you can't use that as an excuse unless you can explain why the polls were all so consistently wrong, and no the Bradley Effect doesn't count as a valid reason, especially as even you have renounced it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The question was were those people lying and saying that they were voting for Obama. There's no evidence to support that, especially if all these die-hard Democrats screaming for McCain signs stories you said were real. Such a person isn't going to lie to pollsters. I also have yet to hear an actual explanation as to why the Bradley Effect didn't appear in the primaries.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The question was were those people lying and saying that they were voting for Obama. There's no evidence to support that, especially if all these die-hard Democrats screaming for McCain signs stories you said were real. Such a person isn't going to lie to pollsters. I also have yet to hear an actual explanation as to why the Bradley Effect didn't appear in the primaries.

Why wouldn't those people lie to pollsters?

So you put up a McCain sign but lie to pollsters to say you're voting for Obama. OK makes perfect sense.

And, yes, I have explained why the Bradley Effect wasn't really present in the primaries. You just love rehashing old arguments and I don't have time for you sad amusement.

No you haven't really other than "The Democratic primary includes just Democrats" which hardly makes any sense considering the people supposedly so susceptible too were Hillary voters in the primary.