Is the effect of the VP greatly overrated on this forum?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yes. Though "greatly overrated" might be an understatement.

OMG HOW ABOUT AN OBAMA/LAMPSON TICKET SO OBAMA WILL BE COMPETITIVE IN TEXAS?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yes, but not by everyone.

You however are one of them, such as for example IIRC predicting Biden would give Obama a 5-point boost in Delaware.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Old, but a gem;

I'm just saying that a Sebelius nomination would close to clinch Kansas, I just got back from there and everyone I talked to liked her.

That has nothing to do with the running mate of the ticket.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It was awhile back in some "Predict these states" thread and for Delaware you tossed on a "an additional 5% if Biden is the running mate" or something like that. I hope I can find it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's not just young posters. The most retarded VP statement ever on the forum comes from WalterMitty who said Joe Manchin would help Obama with working class whites through the whole Midwest.

Yes, I can just see this scene now in rural Ohio:

Guy A: Hey did you hear who Obama chose as his running mate?
Guy B: No, who?
Guy A: Joe Manchin.
Guy B: Uh, who's that?
Guy A: The Governor of West Virginia.
Guy B: Oh wow, now I'm totally sold and voting for that negro! No way I would've voted for him before, but he picked a running mate from a state that's somewhat similar to the area I live in! I'm behind him 100% now!
Guy A: Yes, me too!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I should bump this as it's happening again.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Some VP choices would have a huge impact.

Ed Rendell, Ted Strickland, Jim Webb, Tim Pawlenty*, Charlie Crist and others have the potential to swing a state one way or the other.  That's big, so don't pretend it isn't.

*-Personally, I continue to believe Pawlenty does not swing Minnesota, but some argue otherwise.

None of those do. Rendell is a guy in a state that Obama'll win anyway, Strickland is a guy with a 54% approval rating who had no impact in SUSA's VP polls (yeah those are idiotic, but they might have some validity if candidates have name recognition, which Strickland did), Webb is a freshman Senator who won by less than 10,000 votes, Pawlenty, well I've said enough, but "some" appears to equal on this forum only "quasi-troll Vander Blubb" and no one I've ever heard with any real credibility, including anyone who really knows Minnesota politics, and Crist is a guy from a state where McCain is completely screwed if he needs any assistance winning in the first place.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I agree that there is a tendency of people to say that this or that VP will win a state (or gosh, help out in an entire region) which is entirely false in most circumstances since most VP's aren't wildly popular, well-connected, locally personable state relics that swing voters are truly significantly comforted by.  Webb, for example, has not been a senator long and barely won against an opponent who used a racist slur on tape.  Portman has been out of office and was only elected on a district level.  Not too many Ohioans are going to vote McCain because an ex-Ohioan congressman that none of them knew existed is on the flip side of the ticket (probably not that many would even flip within McCain's own district). Because the VP has to have been in the state long enough that swing voters feel comforted by the VP's presence on the ticket, there are very few options for these two 'Washington outsider' candidates.

Yes, this being the key point.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=78863.msg1623382#new

Yet again.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yes, but the idea that VP's can't swing a state is just, historically, incorrect. Carter probably wouldn't have won Minnesota in 1980 without Mondale (not that it helped), Muskie kept Maine Democratic in 1968 as the rest of the Northeast was swinging back to the Republicans, and Kennedy would have lost Texas in 1960 if not for LBJ.

There's quite a difference between people like that and people who aren't even halfway into their first term or who haven't ever received over 50% of the vote (who are being mentioned as people capable of singlehandedly flipping their states.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

One day if I'm bored I'll try to look it up. You were frequently one of those many who were throwing around names that some candidate should pick for "flipping/locking up" a state, which is exactly the nonsense I'm referring to.

Walter is the absolute worst though.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=79062.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=79062.msg1627280#msg1627280

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Then you're proving the point of this thread very well. No one is going to to vote for someone they hate because they like their running mate.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Some VP choices would have a huge impact.

Ed Rendell, Ted Strickland, Jim Webb, Tim Pawlenty*, Charlie Crist and others have the potential to swing a state one way or the other.  That's big, so don't pretend it isn't.

*-Personally, I continue to believe Pawlenty does not swing Minnesota, but some argue otherwise.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=79180.0

We can now conclude those "some" arguing otherwise are wrong.