An autopsy of liberal Republicans

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So now we can't win the NE without liberal Republicans? Even moderates aren't good enough? Wow.

House delegation of New England:
22 Democrats
0 Republicans

Throw in New York and you get:
48 Democrats
3 Republicans

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So now we can't win the NE without liberal Republicans? Even moderates aren't good enough? Wow.

House delegation of New England:
22 Democrats
0 Republicans

Throw in New York and you get:
48 Democrats
3 Republicans

I know, I know. Every election cycle will be like 2006 and 2008.

You don't really expect to pick up many of those seats in 2010 do you?

You just had a chance back in March and you still failed.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

2008:



2006:



The Democratic gains were clearly mostly not in the South. In 2006 only 4 pickups were in the South, three of which were due to very flawed incumbents (DeLay, Foley and Charles Taylor) and one of which is hardly part of the cultural South. 2008 saw only 5 pickups in the geographic south, one of which is obviously not the cultural South no matter how much benconstine wishes (the NOVA seat), one of which is also mostly not the cultural South and was due to a very flawed incumbent (Feeney's)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's 1992 for the record:



Darkest color is 80-100% of the seats, then 60-80%, below that is a majority with over 50%, and the stripes are a tie.

So yeah, the point is obvious and clearly made. And Phil, the only reason I mentioned the NY seat was it was one of the states I was referring to. How does a seat in New York relate to the South in any way?

So now we can't win the NE without liberal Republicans? Even moderates aren't good enough? Wow.

House delegation of New England:
22 Democrats
0 Republicans

Throw in New York and you get:
48 Democrats
3 Republicans

Don't ever get cocky.  I could easily see PA 3, 4, 10, 12, and 17 switching to the GOP as they stand now given a future open seat and friendlier GOP environment.  I would also be afraid to sacrifice Pat Murphy to run for the Senate because it's now the most Republican area of the PA suburbs and the GOP has a deep, willing bench to replace him.  PA 11 if the old dope Kanjo runs against possibly Lou Barletta would be interesting as well, but would likely stay Dem.   True, PA 6 has been lucky for Gerlach, but other than that, PA 15 would be our only other expansion option.  Plus we had a close one in NY-20.  It is vitally important we don't just coronate Tom Corbett for this very reason.

PA Summary:

Dems can expand: 6, 15.  16 Maaybe with future exurban expansion and a good redistricting.

GOP can expand: 3, 4, 8, 10, 11, 12, 17.  Don't turn back on 7 and 13 either.

...Where was Pennsylvania mentioned in that post?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And 2008 by the same scale for comparison:

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And Phil, the only reason I mentioned the NY seat was it was one of the states I was referring to. How does a seat in New York relate to the South in any way?

The NY seat is used as a demonstration that the GOP is out of touch with the NE. Some of us used to argue that the Dems were out of touch in the south but look how they rebounded. By the way, they didn't rebound by just nominating conservative Dems. Liberal Dems have taken traditional GOP/conservative seats and they won't hold them forever.

...and as was proven here, the Democrats never really rebounded in the South.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The GOP held the House for 12 years after 1994. If you want to argue they can retake in 2018, sure it's possible but the advantage of incumbency is why it likely won't happen for awhile.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Something Phil should take into account is the mass GOP retirements we saw in 2008. Something tells me that if most Congressional Republicans believed the GOP had a bright future and great shot at the majority soon, more would've stuck around...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How do you say "wrong" in Greek?

λάθος

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And the DFL is certainly making Bachmann the face of Republicans here, the standard talking point for the past 2 years has been "If you vote for any Republican for any office you are voting for Michele Bachmann."

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

To be fair Phil, you got to realize that is largely how things are perceived in other countries, especially ones with parliamentary systems. Someone from another country having such a misconception wouldn't be uncommon.