Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

I didn't want to consider the possibility at the beginning of the campaign because I figured I'd just end up disappointed, but now it looks like the NDP has a real chance of winning and may even be favored. How would an NDP victory affect the coming federal campaign? Would the NDP see a boost after toppling a longstanding government in the most conservative province? Would it have any affect on Trudeau?

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Just think, if the polls here and in Manitoba currently come to pass, the only NDP provincial government in Canada will be in goddamn Alberta of all places! Could anyone have seen this coming even 2 weeks ago?

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Pollster Bruce Cameron of ROI predicts a PC win, either small majority or minority. Would Jean and Notley try an Accord in a PC minority situation, or let them peter out for a year before moving non-confidence?

Forum: 42/24/21.

I still have a hard time seeing how the NDP doesn't at the very least get a minority government, as for the PCs or Wildrose to win at this point the polls would have to be off by something like 25-30%, which would make even the worst of all previous polling failures look like margin of error movement. Also by this point in 2012, the polls were starting to close somewhat, but the NDP is only expanding their lead now.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Insights Poll: 42-27-23-4

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Now it's NDP 18, PC 17, WR 9.

THE NDPOCALYPSE HAS ARRIVED!

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

CBC projects NDP government.

YOOOOOOOO

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

If not for Banff-Cochrane, Calgary could be an NDP circle (with 2 spots in it, though), surrounded by a PC circle, surrounded by Wildrose. The NDP leads Wildrose just 38%-35% in Banff -- come on...

Wildrose official says it's a good result for them. They've seemed unusually defeatist this whole campaign. 2012 and 2014 have left their mark.

It is. It sets them up to form government once the NDP falls in a decade or so.

Or to sit on the opposition benches over the coming 40 year reign of the NDP

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Rachel Maddow talked about the Alberta election on her show just now, but somewhat infuriatingly showed the NDP as blue and PCs as red on the seat projection and didn't even mention Wildrose, and also referred to the NDP as "liberals" even though there is a Liberal Party... I know she's tailoring it for an American audience unfamiliar with Canadian politics, but it was like nail on a chalkboard (and on my eyes) for me.