stevekamp
Rookie
Posts: 65
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« on: February 25, 2014, 01:58:37 AM » |
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A better comparison is 2004 (national Republican peak raw vote year) versus 2012 (Democratic comedown from 2008). Between 2004 and 2012, Democrats gained five times as many raw votes in Virginia versus the Republicans: 517,078 for the Democrats versus 105,563 for the Republicans.
As a result, the margin flipped from Bush 262,217 to candidate Obama 234,527 to President Obama 149,298, an eight-year Democratic margin shift of 411,515 that exceeds any “missing white voter” number from Rural Virginia. If these trends hold up in 2016 and 2020, Democrats will hold the 13 electoral votes from Virginia and add them to the 246 from the 2004 John Kerry states plus 6 from Iowa and 5 from New Mexico (two states that between 1992 and 2012 went Republican only in 2004, and only barely), giving Democrats the winning 270 once the polls close at 1900 hours Eastern Standard Time in the commonwealth – regardless of the outcome in Florida, Ohio, Colorado or Nevada.
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