Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[MalaspinaGold]

Ok. Just got to accept Netanyahu is PM, and Israel will continued to be isolated.

So does this spell the end of Herzog? Netanyahu's personality completely dominated the election. I think the Left needs someone more charismatic/stronger than Herzog, as much as Herzog is a good man imo. Any Israelis have anyone is mind? Someone Netanyahu can't bully. I don't think a younger politician more focused on social issues would work.

They tried that with Yachimovich and failed epically.

[MalaspinaGold]

The no statehood pledge brought Jewish Home members to likud to prop it up. That's why JH lost a third of its strength. It also possibly explains why Yachad missed the threshold.

It doesn't explain why Likud hit 29 seats though...

[MalaspinaGold]

To elaborate, Galon will only resign if they get 4, so Zandberg remains in the Knesset. She will hold onto the chairmanship until the next party primary though.

On Israel, my Israeli classmate I think described it the best:
I think Israel is a case study for the amount of s**t people can eat and still kiss the heels of the sh**ter

[MalaspinaGold]

At least Jewish Home lost seats?

Struggling to find something positive to take away from these ghastly results.

Joint List got 14 seats...

[MalaspinaGold]

There's a very specific sort of incumbent victory that has a certain rather shabby feel about it isn't there?

Anyway, if we compare the provisional results to the final polls, if we accept that minor deviations are to be expected, then it's really only three parties with polling scores that look very clearly *wrong*: Likud, Jewish Home and Yachad. And that's the election explained, or something.

That's right. According to the last polls I've seen in Wikipedia, the right-religious bloc was expected to get between 55-57 and the left-Arab bloc 41-44. That's exactly what happened (though it ended up in the higher end for the former and the lower end for the latter). Most transfers have been internal to blocs.

THe problem with this analysis is that these blocs don't really exist. Had ZU beaten Likud decisively they would have had a decent shot at roping in Kulanu and/or Shas/UTJ and form a government.

You mean Shas and UTJ were open to supporting a Left-wing government over a Centre-Right one when both were a possibility? I wouldn't have thought.

They only would have done it if Labor came in first place. They'll go along with the plurality winner because they just want to be in power regardless. They aren't going to act as kingmaker for a runner up though, that would be seen as showing too much favor to that party and hurt future relations with the other.

So a vote for them is essentially a wasted vote? At least in terms of deciding who will govern the country.

Thing is, the Ultra-Orthodox don't care much what happens in the rest of the country. So long as they got their money and their Rabbi positions and got out of the draft they could be in a Joint List coalition for all anyone cared (being half serious here).

[MalaspinaGold]

Or a unity government.

[MalaspinaGold]

Here's a good rundown on it. If Bibi can't do it (unlikely but possible, if Bennett decides to play the game of chicken to the bitter end, then Herzog gets to try, then someone else, then snap elections).
http://www.ariehkovler.com/2015/05/israel-what-if-theres-no-coalition-by-tomorrows-deadline/

I am truly shocked that Bibi let this get away from him. I thought a coalition would have been a walk in the park...

[MalaspinaGold]

What would happen if there was an early election? Beytenu would be out of the Knesset. Probably Meretz too. Would Jewish Home be punished further for not cooperating? Could we see a return to the 80s where Labor and Likud are getting like 80% of the vote together?

Why would Meretz do any worse than last time? If anything, their voters seemed quite happy they made it.

They'll be a small boost for Meretz as Labour won't have to let's win effect to sway voters second time around.
Anyway there won't be a second election, Labour's old guard will just make Herzog crawl at one point into a unity government and that is why I will never vote Labour.

Now Liberman is going to do what he does best, populist racism to regain right wing voters

How old is the old guard? They must be quite geriatric at this point...

[MalaspinaGold]

Very interested to see who "we're keeping the Foreign Ministry within the Likud" means. Silvan Shalom has held the post before, but that was under the Sharon government, which is no longer remembered fondly, and he seems past his prime in any case. Ze'ev Elkin and Tzachi Hanegbi have both been Deputy FM under Netanyahu; or, if he's going to promote one of the lesser ministers, Gilad Erdan, Yuval Steinitz, and Yisrael Katz are all possibilities. Whoever gets the position will become one of the frontrunners to replace Netanyahu whenever it is that Bibi chooses to leave.

My Israeli friend thinks that Netanyahu may assume the foreign minister portfolio himself. It's been done before apparently.

[MalaspinaGold]

Why? He's supporters are working class Sephardic Jews. They won't care if he gives a lot of money to the ultra-Orthodox.

Because he is either the most hted person in the country, blamed by everybody for not giving them money - or he is presiding over serious trouble. Most likely, both, actually. It is not the problem that he gives the money to Shasniks - the problem is, what he has to placate the rest. The budget is not bottomless, you know.

Lapid still kept more than half his support for whatever reason...