Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[MalaspinaGold]

Interesting note: of the Hadash MKs that were elected in 2013, Khenin will be the only one in the next Knesset. Barakeh and Agbaria announced they're retiring today. This also leaves Tibi as the only lausible choice to head a joint list.

Zahalka got a 74% vote of confidence in the Balad primaries today, so he'll continue there.

Would the Israelis here know who else is running in these primaries?

[MalaspinaGold]

Meretz primaries will take place today. Raviv Drucker had an article out that eviscerated the anticipated list that would come out of it, saying that there were no new authoritative faces that could pull voters that way, and specifically brings up the case of Ben Reuven. http://www.haaretz.com/opinion/.premium-1.637639

Personally, I think he does have a point and that somehow the Meretz election structure should be revamped to accommodate outsiders. Maybe open it up to all the party members or reserve one spot in the top five to someone new? Would be interesting to know what hnv1 thinks (as well as how you'll be voting!)

The only real feedback from an actual Israeli is from the Israel fellow at my Hillel. He's center-left and voted for Yesh Atid last election, but he wants Issawi Frej to take the number 3 spot. He likes Zaki but is unsure whether his work as head of B'tselem will turn voters off.

[MalaspinaGold]

Shas just released an excellent ad:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4PyeR1YsD8

Thank you for not insulting the Russians again...

[MalaspinaGold]

Here's the Meretz list down to 13:
1) Zehava Galon
2) Ilan Gilon
3) Issawi Frej
4) Michal Rozin
5) Tamar Zandberg
6) Mossi Raz
7) Gabi Lasky
Avi Dabush
9) Avshalom Vilan
10) Uri Zaki
11) Revital Len Cohen
12) Nir Lahav
13) Itai Svirski

Overall a very left-wing list, even more so than last time. Both Raz and Laski are on the left end of the party, especially when it comes to human rights. They also managed to outdo Labor in terms of female representation (four of the first seven, compared to three of the top five).  Also fairly strong sephardi representation. And then of course there's the fact that Frej took the third spot, quite impressive for an Arab in a Zionist party.

Also, it seems that Kachlon's number 3, the Ethiopian journalist Tzago Malko, may not be able to run, as she didn't resign from her job in time.

[MalaspinaGold]

So, the Israeli media has kind of gone wacko with hypothetical merger possibilities. Ones included:

Likud-Bayit Yehudi: the reason they'd do this would be to be certain they'd get the largest number of seats forcing Rivlin to give them the nod. Bennett isn't hot on the idea though, and might ask for a pm rotation in that case.

Hamahane Hatzioni- Yesh Atid: If there's a Bibi/Bennett merger, these two parties would likely merge to boost their chances of being the largest party.

Kulanu-Yesh Atid: Kahlon already shot this down, but if his share of the votes keeps dropping, he may decide to change his mind (for funding purposes if nothing else).

Yachad-Otzma: Yishai with the Kahanists, in order for them to both get above the threshold. Yishai's Rabbis have been in contact with the other side, and negotiations may have started.

[MalaspinaGold]

Kulanu is dropping because they couldn't get any big names for their list.

That said, Yesh Atid didn't have many big names last time. Yesh Atid also dropped below 10 in most polls before the last election.

I could totally see Kulanu coming in a surprise second. All the frivolous people who voted for YA last time looking for a new home and deciding at the last minute.

He got Galant, Oren, and Azaria. Those three are pretty big right there.

[MalaspinaGold]

Lapid's list was released:
1) Yair Lapid
2) Shai Piron
3) Yael German
4) Meir Cohen
5) Yaacov Peri
6) Ofer Shelah
7) Haim Yellin- new guy, former head of Eshkol Regional council
Cool Yoel Razvozov
9) Karin Elharar
10) Aliza Lavie
11) Mickey Levy
12) Elazar Stern- former Hatnuah MK
13) Pnina Tamano-Shata
14) Dov Lippman
15) Ruth Calderon

[MalaspinaGold]

former Beitar Jerusalem football star Eli Ohana will join the Jewish Home in one of the reserved spots. Significant because Beitar has a very right wing fan base, traditionally connected with the Likud Which Bennet is now going for.

Is it slot 11 that he's getting? And everyone else is getting bumped down one slot (except Strook and Kalfa, who "can't" be bumped down)?

For the YA list, up to 8 looks very likely, 9-12 possible, and 13 down is doubtful. Three Yesh Atid MKs are not seeking reelection -- Adi Koll (who made a public announcement), but also Rina Frenkel and Shimon Solomon.

So, at this point...it seems like the lists are known, except for the identity of who Netanyahu intends to appoint to slots 11 and 23 in the Likud. That's the final mystery (unless some parties really do choose to suddenly unite over the last few days).

Likud is considering the horrid Jpost columnist Caroline Glick for #11.

Don't forget the Haredi parties btw- they've yet to release their lists.

[MalaspinaGold]

Not the one to judge, but if Ben Reuven really wants a long career in politics, I'm not sure Livni's the one he should be going in with, considering some factors such as what happened to the last two big military men that wen with Livni, and indeed the person whose spot Ben Reuven just took.

I'm sure hnv1 has stronger thoughts than me though.

[MalaspinaGold]

And Ohana has announced he'll be resigning his spot on the list. A major embarrassment for Bennett, this is.

[MalaspinaGold]

He did this last time, ended up returning to Raam-Taal.

It seems that Bibi gave slot 11 to Benny Begin. A lot of people turned him down.

[MalaspinaGold]

He'll probably get some Bedouin votes, not much otherwise. People who don't like UAL will probably either vote Zionist Camp/Meretz or stay home.

[MalaspinaGold]

Could one of the Israelis expand on the Temple Mount issue?

It was the main stumbling block for an agreement between Yishai and the Kachists.

I know it's the moderate position not to let Jews pray at the Temple Mount and the extremist one to let them do so.

This is a case where the extremist side really makes sense though. It's a free country and everyone should be able to go to whatever historic site and do whatever they want as long as they don't damage it.

The seculars try to avoid the Temple Mount issue, the Haredim strongly oppose it, the Dati Leumi generally support it.

The genesis of Haredi opposition is a decision by Rav Yosef that since no one knows where the Holy of Holies once stood, one should not risk the chance of accidentally stepping in that spot. Yishai's mentor/chaperone Rav Mazuz helped Yosef formulate that decision.

The reason that the seculars oppose it is that all hell might break loose in the Arab Sector/West Bank. The Second Intifada was started when Ariel Sharon made his own pilgrimage to the Mount. Unless you're a third temple fanatic (of which there are a few- Yehuda Glick is an example), you have no reason to support it otherwise.

Right now there is a compromise where Jews can visit the Mount, but can only pray silently. Any attempt to expel the Waqf could lead to war with the Jordanians.

[MalaspinaGold]

Wait, does Chetboun also oppose the Temple Mount shenanigans?

[MalaspinaGold]

Are you stupid?

Going beyond Yishai's comments about African immigrants (including his hilarious "white man" comment), I can tell you based on the experiences of a friend of mine that Marzel is literally more racist/fascist than Kahane.

[MalaspinaGold]

Panels/Knesset

Likud - 25
Labor/Livini - 24
Jewish Home - 13
United Arab Parties - 12
Yesh Atid - 11
Kulanu - 8
UTJ - 7
Shas - 6
Meretz - 5
Yisrael Beitenu - 5
Racists - 4

Calling Eli Yishai's party "racists" doesn't make sense at all. I suggest you just put "Yachad Ha'am Itanu-Otzma" there.

Well, factually it's correct.

No, it's not. Islam is not a race.

Another poll by Panel today:

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
26 [18] Likud
22 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
13 [11] Bayit Yehudi
12 [11] United Arab List
11 [20] Yesh Atid
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
06 [10] Shas
06 [06] Meretz
05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
04 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)

69 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
51 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Pause for reflection: Kach was banned for being racist
Not all Palestinians are Muslim
I'd mention the awful things marzel has said but I'd feel dirty writing them.

So now the invented "Palestinian" people has even become a "race"? Inventing definitions with lefties never became so original! And getting called a racist by people who would vote for Balad, like "Malaspinagold", would be an honor for me.

Now let's move back to a far more interesting topic: the Israeli elections.

You ARE an idiot (or more likely a sock). I'm a Meretz supporter, as is clearly evident by my previous contributions to this thread.
And for the record, my friend also happened to be at the guy's Hebron house for Shabbat when he heard the stuff.

Seriously, who's sock are you? Tell us, and then banish yourself forever please.

[MalaspinaGold]

So now the invented "Palestinian" people has even become a "race"?

In the same way that the equally invented "Jewish" people did. As a racist yourself, you would have first-hand experience in how this happens.

Lol! Still don't care about Israel haters and Jew bashers calling me a racist, only makes me smile, so thanks for that.

Let's try to keep this thread as calm and reasonable as possible. If this means not commenting on certain matters, then do not comment on those matters. Thanks.

And now I feel we should listen to this wise man, because it would be a shame if this thread would become only a place for fighting.

I am Jewish. You are racist. Please stop.

Also this.

[MalaspinaGold]

So, a fairly bizarre episode has come into light the previous few days:
An NGO trying to kick out Netanyahu hired Obama's field director from 2012, Jeremy Bird, to do a GOTV effort. Bibi, Bennett, and company have latched onto this, claiming that this is all on Obama's orders, that Zionist Union/Meretz are awash with foreign money, that Bird is working directly with these groups, etc. One guy's even trying to disqualify Meretz/ZU from the election altogether.

This is especially hypocritical considering that Bibi's own campaign director is a Republican strategist himself.

Also, I'm fairly sure this DavidB nut is not from the tribe. It's more likely that he's actually Geert Wilders.

[MalaspinaGold]

danny who will you be supporting in the election?

[MalaspinaGold]

Herzog is in a pretty rough spot now. Liberman said he won't sit in a centre-left government hence trying to force some sort of unity government with Likud-Labour. Kachlon may dislike (like everybody who ever worked with him) Bibi but he and his base are essentialy Likud through and through. On top of that Shas\UTJ won't sit with Lapid unless the criminal sanctions of the draft law are lifted.

A Labour led centre-left-Haredi government is unlikelier than ever. Oh, and with their attempt to attract soft-right voters they are going to support Zoabi's disqualification (which the SCoJ will undo) and thus pissing off the joint Arab party.

Not the best of week for Labour. I assume they new tactic will be drain as much votes as the can from YA and Meretz so they can come to Bibi stronger when discussing a unity government.

As always the two parties least likely to get my vote are Likud and Labour

Yesh Atid?
There is a legitimate possibility Lieberman is left out of the next coalition entirely. Plus, the fact that most Shas voters are right wing didn't stop them from allying with labor when it suited them- perhaps the same is true of Kachlon. This of course doesn't mean a Herzog government is likely.

Like last time though, labor seems to be doing everything to turn off potential voters from the left.

[MalaspinaGold]

1. Meretz opposed Zoabi's disqualification
2. I doubt the voters who will move from Wamab to Hadash is anywhere near as high as those who move the other way based on the Joint List + Frej's placement as #3 plus the overall leftist lean of this list as a whole.

[MalaspinaGold]

Haaretz just published a very nice piece on Russian Jewry and their effect on Israel, with an emphasis on politics and culture.
http://www.haaretz.com/st/c/prod/eng/25yrs_russ_img/?utm_source=Facebook&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social
Would be cool to hear ag and vosem's reactions, considering you guys are Russian-speaking Jews yourselves (I don't count because only my mom's Russian speaking, and my Russian's even worse than my Hebrew.)

Yes only tangentially related to the election, but as someone said earlier, it will probably be a dull thread until March.

[MalaspinaGold]

1. Meretz opposed Zoabi's disqualification
2. I doubt the voters who will move from Wamab to Hadash is anywhere near as high as those who move the other way based on the Joint List + Frej's placement as #3 plus the overall leftist lean of this list as a whole.

I know that I was referring to Avoda not Meretz and was replying to Hnv1 's comment .
Voters are moving from Meretz to Hadash and to Avoda, I know because I am very leftist leaning and a Meretz voter.

Sorry, but I still don't quite see how Meretz voters will gravitate to Hadash.
Meretz hasn't done anything to anger left-wingers as far as I know. In the meantime, it has selected Mossi Raz and Gaby Lasky, who are both at the left end of the party, to spots that might result in Knesset seats (though for Lasky it is increasingly unlikely). Frej will be #3 on the list. Considering that Hadash doesn't exist for the time being, and Khenin #8 on the Joint List, would it not be likely that soft Hadash voters will be attracted towards Meretz?

Besides Burg endorsing Hadash (which he did last time IIRC), what else would tilt things Hadash's way?

Not saying you're wrong, but could you provide more reasons?

[MalaspinaGold]

To help everyone out, here's an exhaustive list of groups who will NOT sit in a coalition together.
Arabs and Likud/Bayit Yehudi/Lieberman/Racists
Meretz and same
Labor and Racists
Likud and Marzel

Any other combination is up for grabs. And don't let any politician tell you otherwise.

EDIT: This hasn't been widely discussed, but apparently the Northern Islamic Movement has ended its call for boycott of the elections for the first time ever. Israelis, do you know how many seats this might net the Joint Arab list?

[MalaspinaGold]

The two sides hate each other, but that hasn't precluded Likud-Labor coalitions in the past...