* I have the voting percentages for Winnipeg and Rural Manitoba *
Swing Projection:
Difference in % between PC and NDP during the 2011.
Winnipeg:
Winnipeg 2011 voter support: (NDP 50.9%, PC 35.7%, LIB 9.6%, Green 3.3%)
Current projection in Winnipeg are (NDP 30%, PC 47%, LIB 14%, Green 6%)
We have a protected swing (PC-NDP) of about 32% for the PCs in Winnipeg. A gain of about 18 seats.
We have a protected swing (PC-LIB) of about 8% between the PC-LIBs in Winnipeg. Not enough to overtake the only Liberal seat in Winnipeg.
Fort Whyte 32.6%
Tuxedo 27.2%
Charleswood 25.7%
River East 7.2%
<*** Ridings that can switch ***>
Kirkfield Park -0.2%
St. Norbert -0.4%
Southdale -7.0%
Seine River -9.0%
St. James -11.4%
Riel -14.7%
Fort Richmond -14.8%
Radisson -15.8%
Rossmere -20.5%
Elmwood -20.5%
Assiniboia -20.9%
Fort Garry-Riverview -22.5%
Transcona -23.5%
Kildonan -23.7%
St. Vital -25.6%
The Maples -25.8%
Tyndall Park -29.3%
Fort Rouge -30.9%
<*** 32% Swing***>
Burrows -33.7%
Concordia -34.5%
Logan -41.7%
St. Johns -43.4%
Wolseley -48.1%
St. Boniface -50.7%
Minto -50.8%
Point Douglas -55.3%
River Heights -13.2% (PC-LIB)
Rural Manitoba:
Rural Manitoba 2011 Vote Support: (NDP 38.9%, PC 54.7%, LIB 4.5%, Green 1.4%)
Current projection in Rural Manitoba are (NDP 18%, PC 68%, LIB 10%, Green 2%)
We have a protected swing of about 34% for the PCs in Rural Manitoba. A gain of 9 seats in Rural Manitoba.
Steinbach 77.5%
Morden-Winkler 73.6%
Morris 54.3%
Agassiz 53.6%
Emerson 52.4%
Midland 45.6%
Lakeside 39.8%
Spruce Woods 37.8%
La Verendrye 37.8%
Arthur-Virden 35.6%
Riding Mountain 23.9%
St. Paul 22.0%
Lac du Bonnet 15.7%
Portage la Prairie 12.9%
Brandon West 1.7%
<*** Ridings that can switch ***>
Interlake -7.0%
Gimli -8.2%
Dawson Trail -9.0%
Dauphin -13.8%
Swan River -15.7%
Brandon East -16.3%
Selkirk -16.5%
Kewatinook -18.2%
Flin Flon -32.9%
<*** 34% Swing***>
Thompson -40.0%
The Pas -49.8%
Overall, you can have a gain of 27 seats for the PCs.
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http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/multimedia/poll-tracker-2016-manitoba-provincial-election-1.3464068http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/prairies.htmlThe Greens have a chance is Wolseley.
Former NDP MLA Clarence Pettersen (who lost the NDP nomination) is running as an Independent is in a four-way race with the (PC, LIB and NDP) in Flin Flon
There is a tight 3-way race in Fort Rouge. CBC Poll Tracker has it projected as (NDP 29.1, PC 29.0, LIB 28.8 )
ANd another tight 3-way race in The Maples. CBC Poll Tracker has it projected as (NDP 29.3, PC 31.2, LIB 31.5)
