The Aftershock: The Jobs Report on Friday (user search)
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  The Aftershock: The Jobs Report on Friday (search mode)
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Author Topic: The Aftershock: The Jobs Report on Friday  (Read 1051 times)
Alcon
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Posts: 30,866
United States


« on: October 04, 2012, 01:57:36 AM »

Obama had a soggy debate performance, and Romney looked human and engaging tonight.  Obama didn't actually have any gaffes, though, so the news media is going to get bored of this fairly fast.  Romney gets a "resurgence?" news cycle which, coupled with continued mediocre economic news, could let him retake the lead.  I don't think that's probable and talk of Obama's campaign being on "life support" is patently ridiculous.  I know this is part of the fun of the horse-race, but please.

You guys are going to make us (Romney supporters) look really silly when a few days from now, Obama still leads nationwide.

A statistical tie looks most likely.  That would mean everyone on both sides is reading too much into this.

? "Statistical tie"?
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Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,866
United States


« Reply #1 on: October 04, 2012, 02:06:51 AM »

Obama had a soggy debate performance, and Romney looked human and engaging tonight.  Obama didn't actually have any gaffes, though, so the news media is going to get bored of this fairly fast.  Romney gets a "resurgence?" news cycle which, coupled with continued mediocre economic news, could let him retake the lead.  I don't think that's probable and talk of Obama's campaign being on "life support" is patently ridiculous.  I know this is part of the fun of the horse-race, but please.

You guys are going to make us (Romney supporters) look really silly when a few days from now, Obama still leads nationwide.

A statistical tie looks most likely.  That would mean everyone on both sides is reading too much into this.

? "Statistical tie"?

1-2% Romney bump = statistical tie nationally

This is kind of nitpicky, but:

1. "Statistical tie" is a meaningless phrase.  Just because something is within the Margin of Error doesn't mean a race is "tied," statistically or otherwise; it is likelier that one candidate is ahead than the other, sometimes by a lot.

2. Considering we have multiple large-sample polls going here, I doubt a 1-2% Romney bump would be within the MoE anyway.
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