Alcon
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 30,866
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« on: January 09, 2015, 05:50:23 AM » |
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For WA, I'm a little dubious on Whitman. It's divided between a Democratic university town and largely very Republican agricultural towns. The agricultural towns are declining, but I'm not sure Clinton will be as strong in college towns as even Obama 2012. College turnout matters a lot. Whitman voted Bush +15, Bush +6, Obama +5, and Romney +3.
Spokane County has somewhat weird voting patterns. It's highly polarized. It was a virtual tie in 1988, then voted Clinton +6 and Clinton +3. It swung Republican, following growth patterns and working-class white vote, during the Bush years, giving Bush +9 and Bush +12. Then Obama almost won it (McCain +1) and, interestingly, didn't suffer greatly in 2012 (Romney +6). This one is a hard read for me. Clinton is probably a marginally better candidate than Obama, but this is fundamentally a Republican-leaning county, and growth isn't going to benefit the Democrats until Spokane starts doing better economically.
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