Republican MI/MS/ID/HI election results thread (first results @8pm ET)

[Alcon]

"Just over 60%" might actually make Michigan the lowest level of support so far, behind Virginia (63%) and New Hampshire (65%), although it wasn't asked in some other states, including Vermont.

[Alcon]

Not to ruin the fun, but keep in mind that there is a lot of variation within these answers.  Trump handily won merely dissatisfied voters in New Hampshire, but Rubio thumped him with that group in Virginia.  Obviously Trump would prefer an angrier electorate, all else being equal, but you can't extrapolate well with this data.

It's also worth considering that Cruz is, to a lesser extent than Trump, also dependent on voters who identify themselves as "angry."

[Alcon]

Not to ruin the fun, but keep in mind that there is a lot of variation within these answers.  Trump handily won merely dissatisfied voters in New Hampshire, but Rubio thumped him with that group in Virginia.  Obviously Trump would prefer an angrier electorate, all else being equal, but you can't extrapolate well with this data.

It's also worth considering that Cruz is, to a lesser extent than Trump, also dependent on voters who identify themselves as "angry."

Kasich doesn't do very well with these people so....

Indeed.

Also worth considering that Michigan's economy is doing pretty decently, which may suppress the "angry" number, even relative to candidate preferences.

[Alcon]

I think we can all agree on 1 thing after these first few primaries: There are some VERY MAD people in the South.

And there are even madder people in New Hampshire.

New Hampshire voters weren't particularly angry.  Trump just did unusually well among voters of all, um, rage indexes.

[Alcon]

Again, it's a bad idea to project the aggregate voting patterns onto states.  There's been a huge amount of variation state-by-state on this.

Less of a problem with the "outsider" vs. "experienced" numbers, but a lot more of a problem for the "angry" question, and the ideology (conservative/very conservative) questions.

[Alcon]

60% MS and 52% MI want an outsider? YUP, Trump's gonna win both.

Those numbers were higher in the earlier primaries.

Mississippi is nearly a record-high, though.  Take this as you will:

Texas: 43% outsider, 44% experienced
Iowa: 48% outsider, 46% experienced
Virginia: 48% outsider, 43% experienced
South Carolina: 48% outsider, 47% experienced
Arkansas: 50% outsider, 44% experienced
New Hampshire: 50% outsider, 44% experienced
Georgia: 51% outsider, 40% experienced
Oklahoma: 51% outsider, 42% experienced
Michigan: 52% outsider
Tennessee: 53% outsider, 36% experienced
Massachusetts: 56% outsider, 36% experienced
Alabama: 58% outsider, 37% experienced
Mississippi: 60% outsider
Nevada: 61% outsider, 32% experienced

[Alcon]

60% MS and 52% MI want an outsider? YUP, Trump's gonna win both.

Those numbers were higher in the earlier primaries.

Mississippi is nearly a record-high, though.  Take this as you will:

Texas: 43% outsider, 44% experienced
Iowa: 48% outsider, 46% experienced
Virginia: 48% outsider, 43% experienced
South Carolina: 48% outsider, 47% experienced
Arkansas: 50% outsider, 44% experienced
New Hampshire: 50% outsider, 44% experienced
Georgia: 51% outsider, 40% experienced
Oklahoma: 51% outsider, 42% experienced
Michigan: 52% outsider
Tennessee: 53% outsider, 36% experienced
Massachusetts: 56% outsider, 36% experienced
Alabama: 58% outsider, 37% experienced
Mississippi: 60% outsider
Nevada: 61% outsider, 32% experienced

I wonder how much of each group Ted gets? He is an outsider compared to Rubio and Kasich, but experienced compared to Trump.

When the candidates are actually competitive: Kasich skews most toward "experience," followed closely by Rubio, with both having little support among those who want an outsider.  Cruz skews toward experience, but has some support among those who prefer an outsider; however, even in Texas, he lost that group to Trump 56%-30%.  Trump just absolutely dominates that group, winning a solid majority in each state so far.

In fact, Trump's number on that question is so steady, and his non-support among those who answer "experience" so consistent, we can pretty well predict what the exit polls will say here.  Trump is probably in the low to mid 30's in Michigan, and upper 30's in Mississippi.

[Alcon]

Rubio~

We're in silly-land at this point, but I'm a little surprised that Trump did so well in this subgroup, considering that at least some of these are probably anti-Trump voters who jumped ship from Rubio in the last week.

Looks consistent with the low-mid 30's guesstimate for Trump.

[Alcon]

This is a much higher proportion of late deciders than previous primaries.  Interesting, although I think a good bit of that may be Rubio's collapse.  It'll be interesting to see if the early decider group is unusually pro-Trump this time.

[Alcon]

The campaign guy made a good pitch as I was walking in and I voted for him.

Your solicitation laws at polling places must be really forgiving...

[Alcon]

Of course we'll have a projection at the top of the hour.  God, Wolf Blitzer, as always, shut your piehole.

[Alcon]

I would like to see CNN make a "minor" projection.

WE HAVE A SIXTH GRADE TALENT SHOW IN KALAMAZOO CLOSING AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR

BUT IT'S TOO CLOSE TO CALL

[Alcon]

Uh, I think they updated their Mississippi exit poll mid-display?  That was bizarre.

Trump 49%, Cruz 36%, Kasich & Rubio 7%

[Alcon]

Mississippi exit poll topline #s (if my math is right):

Trump 45%
Cruz 35.5%
Rubio 9%
Kasich 7.5%

CNN has Trump at 49%, with Cruz at 36% and Rubio at 9%.

Not if you look at their website:

http://edition.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/ms/

Trump is 49% among men and 41% among women, which means 45% total.

I think they may have either had a second wave or adjustment come in right as the polls closed, or more likely, they screwed up and the 45% number is right.

Trump leading basically every exit poll demographic except "very conservative" (Cruz 50-41); those for whom religious beliefs matter "a great deal" (Cruz 50-37); "shares my values" as top quality (Cruz 63-11); pro-free trade voters (38-37); those opposed to the Muslim ban (34-19); and the usual experience and anger questions.

[Alcon]

Trump is now +5 in Michigan. Most are taken from Detroit . Is this a favorable area for him?

Both areas depend a hell of a lot on where the precincts reporting are, but I think it's safe to say that Kasich needs to win Oakland County to be remotely competitive.

Edit: And Kasich pulls ahead very slightly.

[Alcon]

It's just like five random precincts, but those are solid results for Trump in rural Michigan, and he's now leading Oakland County with 12% in.

This is not looking bad for Trump at all thus far.

Edit: More Oakland County and another large rural batch.  Not quite as good for Trump, but still solid.

[Alcon]

Kasich is getting slaughtered in the rural areas. Hard to see him winning.

Yeah, this is starting to look like another Massachusetts.  Trump is now ahead in Oakland as well.  Also, the Wayne precincts that have reported so far went for Sanders, so they could be highly unrepresentative.

Kasich is leading in Oakland County.

You're using an outdated source, although Oakland may flip back and forth.  Trump is under 100 votes ahead.

[Alcon]

Cruz starting to get on the map in rural Michigan, leading in St. Joseph County (Centreville) -- anyone know that area?  He's barely behind in Marquette, too.

[Alcon]

Kasich starting to go back up, now less than 600 votes behind.

That stat is behind (NYT seems to be ahead), and it's pretty much a meaningless figure right now when the vast majority of votes in are from Oakland County.  Unless something crazy happens with absentees, this probably isn't going to be especially close.

The only good news is that Cruz is cutting into Trump's rural margins in some of the more religious territory.  I bet Ottawa County might be great for him.

[Alcon]

Trump above 50% in first Macomb County, MI results.

[Alcon]

We need to see more results in from Wayne County to make any calls.

That is Detroit... Trump will dominate there. He is already ahead by 20% in the few hundred reported there.

It's less than 1%, so it means nothing.

This thing is over. Trump is almost 20,000 votes in the lead with 13% reporting.

Look at Macomb and St. Clair. Trump is over 50% right now. Trump is also winning Livingston by a wide margin too.

13% is not much.  Macomb and Wayne Counties are only single digits in.

Dude, Oakland County is half in and Trump is ahead by several points.  I guarantee you Macomb will be even better for him.  Maybe the networks know something I don't about absentees, but this looks like a clear win to me.

[Alcon]

Dude, Oakland County is half in and Trump is ahead by several points.  I guarantee you Macomb will be even better for him.  Maybe the networks know something I don't about absentees, but this looks like a clear win to me.

The networks know that some counties in the western UP don't close until 9 Eastern, so they can't call it yet.  They'll call Michigan for Trump at the stroke of 9.

Ah, right.

It's actually kind of charming to me that the networks are so religious about that policy, considering how hot they are to do MAJOR RACE UPDATES!!111.

[Alcon]

Ottawa County (11% in):

Cruz  47%
Kasich 20%
Trump 19%
Rubio 10%

Well, that was no surprise.

Big new batch of votes continuing to look like an obvious Trump call in 10 minutes.  Trump has now expanded Oakland to a 3% lead with 60% counted.  Whoever runs the elections office in Oakland County deserves a blue ribbon.

[Alcon]

I think a majority or near-majority of votes are still from Oakland County.  That's pretty remarkable.  It's even more remarkable that Trump is up 11 despite that.

Cruz is obviously going to catch up to Kasich as more votes come in from outside the Detroit metro.

[Alcon]

Ottawa County (11% in):

Cruz  47%
Kasich 20%
Trump 19%
Rubio 10%

Well, that was no surprise.

Big new batch of votes continuing to look like an obvious Trump call in 10 minutes.  Trump has now expanded Oakland to a 3% lead with 60% counted.  Whoever runs the elections office in Oakland County deserves a blue ribbon.

Wayne and Macomb counties have less than 10% of their vote in.

So what, dude?  Do you think there's any chance that Wayne County will be remarkably more favorable to Kasich than Oakland, let alone Macomb being better than Oakland?  You're like an inch away from arguing "there more votes to count!"  Yes, there are.  And those votes are obviously going to have a lot more Trump votes than anyone else's...that's the point.

Come back in 25 minutes and tell me how Wayne and Macomb County go for you.