CA-50 Special Election Busby vs. Bilbray

[Alcon]

Ill say;

Bilbray 52%
Busby 46%
Other 2%

Rounding error to Bilbray.  Basically, a margin of 6 or so.

[Alcon]

I am not sure low turnout is necessarily great for either party here.  You could either say that only the most energised voters - the Democrats - will turn out.  You could also say that those energised voters aren't turning out, leaving the Republican-leaning base.  It could very well be a mix.

However, registered voter turnout in this district is usually quite excellent.  I would be suspicious of any report claiming that turnout is exceptionally low.  Even if they are unhappy with the choices, this seems like the sort of district where people ote.

Where are these turnout reports coming from?  Mail ballots or precinct voters?

[Alcon]

I am not sure low turnout is necessarily great for either party here.  You could either say that only the most energised voters - the Democrats - will turn out.  You could also say that those energised voters aren't turning out, leaving the Republican-leaning base.  It could very well be a mix.

However, registered voter turnout in this district is usually quite excellent.  I would be suspicious of any report claiming that turnout is exceptionally low.  Even if they are unhappy with the choices, this seems like the sort of district where people ote.

Where are these turnout reports coming from?  Mail ballots or precinct voters?

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politics/20060606-9999-1n6elect.html

Hmm, that is statewide, isn't it?  That means about half the statewide turnout than in 2004.  I bet that will be much higher in the 50th, though.

[Alcon]

At the top of the page it says "absentees only" but in the table it says 57 precincts out of 500. Thats because their program automatically tabulates the precinct numbers by the percentage counted? Because shouldnt absentees come from all precincts? Or are they only allowed in 57 precincts where everyone is forced to vote by absentee (not likely)?

They may be absentee-only precincts, or there may be separate precincts for absentee and poll votes.

[Alcon]

Did the San Diego pollworkers go to sleep?

The election is over jFRAUD, Bilbray wins 50.6%-42.88%

Let's not go that far with 11 percent of precincts reporting...

[Alcon]

Did the San Diego pollworkers go to sleep?

The election is over jFRAUD, Bilbray wins 50.6%-42.88%

Let's not go that far with 11 percent of precincts reporting...

Im kidding

Haha, OK.  Don't mean to be rude at all, but your posting style has been kind of different tonight.  Anything interesting in your cup?

[Alcon]

The problem with this race is that this district has such a weirdly scattered precinct selection.  If votes are coming in regionally, we could suddenly see a massive uptick for Billbray if Encinitas reports, or one for Busby if parts of incorporated San Diego report.

[Alcon]

Sorry, I meant Escondido, not Encinitas.

[Alcon]

This is a sign that Duke Cunningham annoyed a small number of Republicans into voting for the Democrats.  It is a sign that this congressional district s drifting to the left, but still not enough to choose Frances Busby over Brian Bilbray.  That is pretty much it.