MI-EPIC/MRA: Obama down 4, but Obama/Clinton beats McCain/Romney by 7 (user search)
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  MI-EPIC/MRA: Obama down 4, but Obama/Clinton beats McCain/Romney by 7 (search mode)
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Author Topic: MI-EPIC/MRA: Obama down 4, but Obama/Clinton beats McCain/Romney by 7  (Read 1326 times)
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 30,866
United States


« on: May 28, 2008, 11:59:17 PM »

Michigan = Indecisive
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Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,866
United States


« Reply #1 on: May 29, 2008, 12:13:11 AM »

It's a 600-person poll, and Detroit city is less than 7% of Michigan.  7% of a 600-person poll is a sample of 42.  A sample of 42 on a population size of 871,121 gives a margin of error of greater than +/-15%.  So...not much to see there.
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Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,866
United States


« Reply #2 on: May 29, 2008, 12:16:30 AM »

It's a 600-person poll, and Detroit city is less than 7% of Michigan.  7% of a 600-person poll is a sample of 42.  A sample of 42 on a population size of 871,121 gives a margin of error of greater than +/-15%.  So...not much to see there.

Ya, and McCain got the entire 15% plus side of the bell curve tail into his courner in Detroit and then some. LOL.

I'm not sure how EPIC does that screening, whether it's touch-numbers or based on phone exchanges.  If it's the former, it's quite plausible that there's some noise involved.  If it's the latter...who knows?  But lately I get the impression that the "1-in-20" rule of samples is trending a little north of the 1:19 ratio.

Especially with what's a rather bad pollster.
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