German Elections & Politics

[President Johnson]

New poll out of Hesse, where the state election takes place on October 28:



Source

[President Johnson]

It would be fun if Hold becomes Justice minister in the new CSU-FW government ...

It would actually be a good and reasonable thing. He would be one of very ministers in Germany who is actually proficient in his métier.

LOL, when Rex Tillerson was appointed, I said Dieter Zetsche should be foreign minister.

[President Johnson]

New poll out of Hesse, where the state election takes place on October 28:



Source

If this holds which is a big if: which of three is most likely:

1.  Grand Coalition
2.  Jamaica Coalition
3.  Traffic Light Coalition

Is a Red-Red-Coalition on the table or has the SPD ruled this out as it some states particularly in former East Germany it is considered, but in most West German states ruled out.

Traffic Light would be the best option by far. A grand coalition only if the SPD comes in first and TSG becomes Minister President. Volker Boffier makes a tired impression.

[President Johnson]

Bear in mind that there are 15 proposed amendments to the Hesse state constitution that people will vote on in October; in the US states a completely normal thing, whereas in Germany even one single ballot measure is a rare exception.

* equality between men/women into the constitution
* a right to data privacy (in IT) into the constitution
* strong children's rights into the constitution (against abuse)
* death penalty out of the constitution
* insert a definition of several state goals into the constitution
* among these state goals: a focus on sustainability
* a focus on strengthening infrastructure
* a focus on strengthening culture
* a focus on strengthening voluntary civil service (red cross, firebrigades etc.)
* a focus on strengthening sports
* a commitment to Europe into the constitution
* lowering the passive voting age to 18 (= min. age for candidates in the state parliament)
* detailed digital publication of all laws on the state government website
* a commitment and strengthening of direct democracy with lower signature thresholds
* full independence of the court of audit

Really kind of mysterious capital punishment is still formally included although it doesn't have any pratical role since the death penalty is unconstitutional at the federal level.

[President Johnson]

My prediction for Hesse:

CDU: 28.2%
SPD: 22.5%
Greens: 18.9%
AfD: 11.8%
Left: 8.0%
FDP: 7.1%

[President Johnson]

According to ARD, 73% of former CDU voters and 53% of lost SPD voters say this election is an opportunity to express their disapproval to the federal government.

I believe we have to end the grand coaltion and either call for new elections or go to a Jamaica coalition. Both without Merkel. The Merkel/Scholz/Seehofer government has not the necessary support to continue leading this country.

[President Johnson]

One thing is for sure after today:

If the CDU remains stuck at 27% and a renewed coalition with the Greens (20%) or SPD (20%) is not possible any longer, the voices within the party to get rid of Merkel will grow really loud over the next months ...

This result today is not something that she can "sit out" or ignore any longer, like she did with the migrant crimes.

Let's hope this happens. If CDU+Greens continue to have a majority, Merkel will continue. She will probably anyway, like Horst Seehofer, who tries to sit this out.

[President Johnson]

A new ARD projection: CDU+Greens now without a majority (60 of 121 seats)

[President Johnson]

A new ARD projection: CDU+Greens now without a majority (60 of 121 seats)

Actually, this is the first ARD projection without a CDU+greens majority (60/121 = 49%). ARD had CDU+Greens or CDU+SPD majorities projected originally, because of the lower number of overhangs.

Would that lead to a CDU/SPD coalition replacing the CDU/Green one?

Doubtful in my mind. This coalition has become very unpopular and would be a "coalition of the losers". I mean, both lost over 10% each. That's a very strong signal that every politican should not ignore. A one seat majority would also be very unstable under these circumstances. Jamaica is far more likely if the CDU/Greens coalition fails to regain a majority. If Jamaica talks fail, there may be a very slim chance, but I think then we may see a CDU/Greens minority cabinet. That's possible, especially if just one vote is missing.

[President Johnson]

Breaking: Merkel does not run for leader of the CDU again in December

https://www.tagesschau.de/eilmeldung/eilmeldung-4033.html

[President Johnson]

Breaking: Merkel does not run for leader of the CDU again in December

https://www.tagesschau.de/eilmeldung/eilmeldung-4033.html

Who do you think will be her successor? AKK?

Most likely. Or Armin Laschet, who would be my preferred one.

[President Johnson]

Breaking: Merkel does not run for leader of the CDU again in December

https://www.tagesschau.de/eilmeldung/eilmeldung-4033.html

Who do you think will be her successor? AKK?

Most likely. Or Armin Laschet, who would be my preferred one.

You're probably right. He's the CDU state leader and governor minister president of the most populous Land. The question is if he will also be the next chancellor candidate or if both posts will be split.

Yeah, this is the main question. If Merkel steps down before 2021, I see Wolfgang Schäuble as caretaker chancellor to the end of this term.

Laschet is also away from Berlin, what does not tie him too closely with the grand coalition.

[President Johnson]

Hope Armin Laschet jumps in. He would also make a fine chancellor (actually my favorite CDU politican).

[President Johnson]

If Spahn or Merz had been chancellor in 2015 would they have reacted differently to the migrant crisis than Merkel?

Yes, They would have handled it like Sebastian Kurz and haven't opened the borders.

I'm not even sure AKK or Armin Laschet would have acted like Mutti did. Still hope Laschet jumps in and replaces Merkel as chancellor.

[President Johnson]

I hope that Friedrich Merz is going to win. The CDU needs to move to the right to absorb AfD voters and leave more room at the center for the SPD to rebound and show a sharper difference between the two parties. AKK is just a continuation of Merkel while Spahn is an empty suit and showboat.