German Elections & Politics

[President Johnson]

Wahl-O-Mat results:

SPD: 68%
CDU/CSU: 62%
Greens: 61%
FDP:60%
The Left: 52%
AfD: 38%

[President Johnson]

If you enter Merkel's positions into the Wahlomat, the results actually recommend to vote for Schulz and the SPD.

Reminds me of this 2013 caricature:

[President Johnson]

No. It's quite complicated....

Thank you for the explanation. It is much appreciated.

At this website, you can fill in percentage points for each party. It calculates the number of seats that result would translate into. And how many seats per state for each party.

[President Johnson]

Yesterday I discussed with my fellow Social Democrats the possibility that we may end up with a new election in spring 2018, if no coalition agreement can be reached. Jamaica is anything but certain, and the SPD members won't vote for a grand coalition again. It may not be representative, but all fellows I know from my party said they would vote against another grand coalition no matter what. Including those who voted in favor four years ago (like myself).

[President Johnson]

grand coalition is far more realistic than 'jamaica' coalition. first of all cdu and spd already worked, then it would need far less time to make that coalition and merkel sure does not want to lose several months in talks with greens and fdp, trying to bridge their differences, gov with two parties will be far more stable then that of 3 or 4. merkel who said that this will be her last term certanly don't want to risk fall of gov which would be very likely if she goes with frankenstein aka 'jamaica' coalition.

My fellow SPD members won't vote for another grand coalition. ZERO chance.

[President Johnson]

A question for Johnson:
Wouldn't a Jamaica coalition be closer to you ideologically than your own SPD ?

No, I've never been a fan of the Greens. Let alone the CDU, which is, and Merkel in particular, without a vision. All major reforms of the past years are SPD works. Greens and CDU governing in my state (Baden-Württemberg) and are grossly incompetent; like eliminating Electronic Date Processing lessons in school, their infrastructure policy is a disaster. As somebody from the Schröder-wing of the party, I'd actually prefer a SPD/FDP coalition. True, I'm often at odds with the party's left wing over economic and fiscal policy as well as political correctness, though the SPD in my county is largely of the pragmatic third-way wing. Our Youth Organization has a good relationship with the FDP Youth (Green Youth wing is de facto dead here).

Nevertheless, I'm in favor of most SPD policies like free eduction from kindergarten to university, more funds for infrastructure and housing (very important, housing market is a huge problem because prices are through the roof), higher taxes on the wealthy, strengthening the EU, tougher handling of the diesel scandal, among others.

[President Johnson]

What's the AfD's stance on economic issues? Are they still really right-wing on economic issues like a couple of years ago or did they moderate to attract low income blue-collar workers or unemployed voters?

 
   
Economically somewhere around the FDP but with much bigger social security cuts.

But - in contrast to the FDP - the AfD supports the minimum wage, they want to raise the welfare benefits and they are against university tuitions.

Their two wings are at odds over most econmic policies including Social Security. Some are economically liberal, others more protectionist etc. Some AfD members want to privatize unemployment insurance.

[President Johnson]

What's the AfD's stance on economic issues? Are they still really right-wing on economic issues like a couple of years ago or did they moderate to attract low income blue-collar workers or unemployed voters?

 
   
Economically somewhere around the FDP but with much bigger social security cuts.

But - in contrast to the FDP - the AfD supports the minimum wage, they want to raise the welfare benefits and they are against university tuitions.

Their two wings are at odds over most econmic policies including Social Security. Some are economically liberal, others more protectionist etc. Some AfD members want to privatize unemployment insurance.

There was a TV debate this Thursday where AfD lead candidate Alexander Gauland flat-out admitted that his party doesn't really have a position on pensions because the two wings in his party hold diametrically opposed views on the issue. The AfD is solely held together by their opposition to immigration, Angela Merkel, "political correctness", and the "mainstream media". If they ever had to to govern, they'd probably split into two distinct political parties very quickly... a more "libertarian" one, and a more economically populist one.

Correct, I've seen it. There is not much substance beyond the anti-immigration and anti-establishment rhetoric. Therefore I side with Christian Lindner, who said during the debate, that he prefers to confront the AfD with a broad range of questions from all political topics instead of only yelling that they're nazis.

Btw, AfD also denies climate change. So much for the "common sense" party.

[President Johnson]

BREAKING CSU leader Seehofer questions parlamentary alliance with CDU.

If that is true, the forming of new cabinet will be fun to watch.

[President Johnson]

BREAKING CSU leader Seehofer questions parlamentary alliance with CDU.

If that is true, the forming of new cabinet will be fun to watch.

Yeah.... please do it, Seehofer.

CDU (without CSU), SPD, and Greens would also hold a majority in the new parliament. Kenya coalition.

ZERO chance SPD joins the government again. And that is good.

[President Johnson]

CSU now declined that they intend to leave the parlamentary group.

Btw: We should start a new thread

[President Johnson]

One question, how easy would it be to make a CDU/CSU+FDP+AfD coalition?

I know everyone has said they won't work with the AfD, but that coalition seems a lot easier to create in my opinion than CDU+FDP+Greens

AfD already ruled out to join a government. Frauke Petry is open to the idea for 2021, but she's isolated in her party. She even today announced that she wouldn't join the AfD parlamentary group. If others follow, the AfD may split into two factions, as they have done for a while in the legislature of Baden-Württemberg. So, the new Bundestag hasn't even assumbled, and AfD is already fighting their own people. Will be fun to watch.

Merkel also ruled out to work with the AfD many months ago. Even the CSU declined to work with AfD. Let alone the FDP.

[President Johnson]

Interesting: 1,400 men and women joined the SPD within the last 24 hours. Great news for the future!

https://twitter.com/MartinSchulz/status/912313858429276160

[President Johnson]

I see the Obergrenze thing like Christian Lindner: Let the CSU introduce legislation and see what happens or how it looks like. If it's unconstitutional, put into the garbage.

[President Johnson]

Terrible polls. The party system is too much splitted what makes everything dysfunctional.

[President Johnson]

Terrible polls. The party system is too much splitted what makes everything dysfunctional.

Maybe German politics needs to divorce itself from its aversion against minority governments after all. There must be a reason that all the European countries who happen to do this on regular still exist and prosper. Despite the AfD's recent successes this isn't Weimar, and a minority government won't lead to Germany launching World War III in the long run. A CDU/CSU minority government could be tolerated by SPD or FDP/Greens, depending on the issue. Problem is, we're certainly not there yet. As I indicated before, we would need at least another snap election for that.

Minority governments don't work very well, and won't do so in Germany. I'm for a majority election law similar to the UK what keeps minor parties out of the Bundestag. Which I would then limit to 500-550 seats; one per district and districting by an independent commission.

[President Johnson]

Any news on what government is to be formed in Lower Saxony?

Summary:
The SPD is for a traffic-light coalition (SPD + Greens + FDP), but the FDP said no.
The CDU would prefer a Jamaica coalition (CDU + Greens + FDP), but the Greens rejected it.
Neither of them have apparently the guts for a minority government.
So the only remaining option is a grand coalition (SPD + CDU), on which they're currently negotiating. Especially the SPD isn't happy with the prospect of a grand coalition, though.

Grand coalition is bad, especially when you have two major parties in a strong position. The FDP should gets its act together and enter a traffic-light coalition.

[President Johnson]

Minority governments don't work very well,

Do you have any empirical evidence for that? In what way do they not work very well exactly?

The examples of Sweden, Denmark, or even Spain - where minority governments are the norm and not the exception -  seem to refute that statment.

I'm for a majority election law similar to the UK what keeps minor parties out of the Bundestag. Which I would then limit to 500-550 seats; one per district and districting by an independent commission.

Well, apart from the fact this will probably never happen of course (and is hence far less likely than Germany trying out a minority government) I sure as hell hope that things would balance themselves out a bit under such a system. Under a straight FPTP system, the CDU/CSU would currrently hold a three-quarter majority in the Bundestag and they also would have done so in 2013.

Unless you hope that the voters of FDP, Greens, and Left would flock to the two major parties under a FPTP system, which basically means that you want the electoral system as a measure to force voters of the smaller parties to switch to the bigger ones. Curiously, I seem to recall that you're a member of one the two major parties yourself, so your own party would be the one who'd potentially profit the most from such a change.

Northrine Westphalia was governed by minority cabinet from 2010 to 2012 and it didn't work so well. Minority governments are not tested in Germany and probably won't function effectively, especially at the federal level. I think it would be irresponsible for such an important country like Germany.

Without Gerrymandering and a two round system of voting (perhaps jungle primary), the CDU wouldn't get a two thirds majority, because Left and Greens would largely vote for the SPD including some FDP supporters.

[President Johnson]

I know, I argued different just a few days but I think Merkel should lead a CDU minority government for one or two years and then call for new elections. CDU and SPD should renew themselfes until that date. A new election right now wouldn't change much and grand coalition is toxic for democracy.

I wrote a detailed opinion for SPD Youth's magazine that will apear tomorrow about that and post the link then

[President Johnson]

Other state leaders like Berlin Mayor Michael Müller also expressed concern on a grand coalition. I think in the end, the base will vote down any coalition agreement, especially since the negotiation results are pretty weak (unlike in 2013). I'll also vote against it and don't know many people in my party here at the base that are in favor of a grand coalition.

[President Johnson]

According to Tagesschau, a coalition agreement has been reached.

Meanwhile, the newest INSA poll is a disaster for the so-called grand coalition:

CDU/CSU: 30.5%
SPD: 17%
AfD: 15%
Greens: 12.5%
Left: 11%
FDP: 10%
Others: 4%

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm

Grand colation is without a majority (47.5%), versus 48.5% all others above 5%. GREAT JOB!

[President Johnson]

According to BILD Schulz becomes Foreign minister.

LOL

Schulz is a complete scumbag. I hope the party referendum fails bigly. If that goes through, I'd consider leaving the party since I can't represent such a lack of principles and flip-flopping anymore.

[President Johnson]

This is just amazing. The CDU has not only dropped any pretense of being a conservative party, it has now ceded virtually all major ministries to the SPD in an effort to somehow keep Merkel in power for another 4 years. All the AfD now has to do is sit back and enjoy its rising poll numbers.

True. I don't agree with Alexander Gauland on many things, but he was completely right in his assessment that the CDU has become an empty shell. Merkel even missed to include some refreshing leaders such as Jens Spahn or David McAllister. Klöckner is a failed politican, who gets rewarded after losing two elections in her state.

[President Johnson]

So who will be the Foreign Minister now? Gabriel again? Or perhaps ... JENS SPAHN

(I know that won't happen. One can dream tho)

The SPD in Lower Saxony is pushing hard for Gabriel.

Gabriel was actually a decent FM

Gabriel is the best man of the SPD for the entire cabinet. However, I will still vote against the grad coalition at the party referendum. Sadly, I know some folks who changed their mind in favor. However, most SPD members in my county are still against a coalition.

[President Johnson]

Last Minute prediction from an SPD member: 58% in favor.