Hypothetical: DSCC invests in runoff, Keystone XL passes Senate and is vetoed

[IceSpear]

What would the result have been, when the actual is 56-44 Cassidy?

I'm saying 54-46 Cassidy. At first glance it seems like the swing should be more, but Louisiana doesn't seem like a state with too many persuadable voters in the Obama era.

[IceSpear]

Yep, I think she doesn't win, but she cracks 45%.

I wish the DSCC gave her some spending, at least for the sake of solidarity. Honestly, I gave them some donations, but I won't in 2016 after how they treated Landrieu.

The DSCC was pretty terrible in general this cycle. Throwing millions down the toilet in Arkansas. The cluster[finks] in South Dakota. Triaging Grimes, then randomly came back in to support her again. Granted, I thought at the time triaging her was a mistake, but I wasn't privy to the inside information they were that evidently showed her chances slipping away. Then they abandon Landrieu, who probably would've done at least as well as Nunn (who they spent millions on) had they actually helped her.

[IceSpear]

To me, the problems with the "Keystone would save the Democrats" issue are thusly:


1) If I'm the type of voter who is dead-set PASSIONATE about Keystone XL, I'm probably voting Republican anyway.

2) If I support Keystone XL, but not insanely so, then I have the choice between A) A Democrat who supports Keystone XL, but will also support the President who will veto it and the Majority Leader who doesn't support it, and B) A Republican who supports Keystone XL, and will help bring a GOP Majority that will make Keystone XL an easy pass through Congress.

Well, I don't think anyone thinks it would have saved her, let alone saved Democrats in general. But it could've helped at the margins.

[IceSpear]

What if she didn't vote for Obamacare and listened to her constituents might be a better question to ask.

She would have won, because there would be no way to paint her as Obama Democrat.

The same applies to Hagan.

Bobby Bright, Walt Minnick, Jim Marshall, John Barrow, Travis Childers, Gene Taylor, Lincoln Davis, and Chet Edwards all beg to differ.