2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions

[IceSpear]

Likely R:
AK (in case Murkowski loses the primary)
GA
IA (in case Grassley retires and/or Dems get Vilsack)
LA (Vitter probably vacates this)

Lean R:
AZ
IN
MO
NH (will be a toss up if Dems can get Hassan)
NC

Toss Up:
FL (Rubio is clearly not running, and Murphy is)
OH
PA
WI (will be lean D if Feingold runs)

Lean D:
CO
NV (would've been a toss up if Reid didn't retire)
IL*

Likely D:
CA (in case it becomes R vs. R)

[IceSpear]

D+5 is. probably, the most Democratic prediction that could be done (with Hagan being relatively unpopular and Burr - relatively noncontroversial). But thinghs seldom go all as desired. So, my prediction is somewhere about D+3... Wisconsin, Illinois and something else...

If it ends up being a wave, 6-10 seats flipping is not outside the realm of possibility. The possibility shouldn't really be discounted when there hasn't been a non wave election in the Senate since 2004 (yes, 2012 counts. The only reason Dems gained "only" two seats was because they were starting from such a ridiculously high base. Similarly, if the GOP gained 2 seats in 2016, it would be a wave.)

[IceSpear]

All the Dems really need is four seats it will entail: Mastro, Bennett, Duckworth, Sestak and Feingold winning, and 1 of the following from NH, OH and FL. 

A wave of some sort would have tp entail more retirements from McCain, Rand Paul and Rubio.  Dems best hope in AZ was in 2012, KY in 2014, and a Christie or Huckabee Nomination in 2016, to win in FL.

Best bet in NH or Oh for the fourth seat.

They need 5 if the Republicans reclaim the White House, but I agree that the two are somewhat correlated, meaning that a Democratic wave in the Senate would probably net a Democratic President and vice versa.

Yeah, if Republicans win the presidency, a D Senate is a nonstarter. So really 4 is the only number that matters.

[IceSpear]