I guess we're just going to throw history and context out the window here.
UNH had Romney up 9 in April 2011. PPP had Romney up 2 in June 2011. NBC/Marist had Romney up 9 in October 2011. The RCP average in January 2012 for New Hampshire was R+5. The RCP average in April 2008 for New Hampshire was R+7.
Early flirtations with the GOP in New Hampshire, especially with their campaign blitz for the NH primary, is nothing new and nothing to get excited over.
If anything, Hillary being close/up right now at the point in the election when the Republican is usually ahead in NH shows how Safe D it is.
Fall 2011 was basically the bottom for perceptions of the economy, then things started rebounding noticeably just in time for Obama. Had the election been in November 2011, I do think Romney would win, potentially even by a reverse 2008 margin.
Obama still led Romney nationally in Fall 2011.
