Looks about right. I think she ends up winning Ike style against Trump and by somewhere between Obama 2008 and Obama 2012 against Cruz.
If Trump somehow wins in the end, will people ever take those early general election polls seriously?
People should have learned by now never to take early general election polls seriously.
Isn't it hilarious how every Democrat says "These Kasich vs. Clinton numbers are junk because <insert mental gymnastics here>" but is convinced that the Trump vs. Clinton numbers MUST be right. I think it has to do with the fact that they really hate Trump - they want him to get humiliated so badly that they aren't able to distinguish reality from wishful thinking anymore. I mean, I'm not willing to rule out a Clinton landslide (say, 380 EV or so) either if Trump is the nominee, but it's very unlikely to happen. Most Republicans will come home for him in the end and assuming he's no Democratic plant, his worst case scenario is the 2012 map - NC - AZ.
I think the logic is that Kasich/Sanders haven't been scrutinized as heavily, whereas Hillary and Trump have already been to hell and back multiple times. That said, it's still early and doesn't mean very much. But it means more than it does for relatively untouched candidates.
