TX-SEN: True to Form

[IceSpear]

one of mah coll-eegs over at Texahs said the followin "I don't know. I'm even seeing a lot of Beto signs in the yuppie Highland Park area outside of Dallas. Not sure if that area normally leans left, but I would be shocked if it does."

now this quote got me here thinkin' mah fellow 'merican Cruz is uh bout to get a bigger ass whoopin from Papa Beto than mah paps gave me as a lil lad, and boy was that smart.

i yoused ta think that beta was gonna get his effette twinky butt handed to him by ol lyin ted, but dat dere ol quinnipiac poll gave me second thoughts. looks like teddy might be headed to the woodshed thanks to the (((bushes))) and their clan getting revenge for jeb, plus all dem illegals floodin over the boarder.

i'll be ratin dis one likely d

[IceSpear]

Beto losing by >10 would qualify as surprising. Or Cruz tying with Hispanics.

(Yes I'm prepared for the worst.)

Cruz only beat a nobody who didn't campaign by 16 points, in a relatively neutral year when TX was considerably more Republican than it currently is. Cruz isn't beating an actual opponent who is matching his fundraising and campaigning all over the state by 10+ this year.

I don't think Beto wins, but I have his performance range at -6 +-2...that is to say, I think he loses by somewhere between 4 (in a phenomenal Democratic night) and 8 points, and I expect the result to be right around losing by 6.

Yeah, people seem to forget that Cruz's margin against a some dude with no money wasn't exactly impressive. And this was before Cruz was as hated by Democrats and relatively disliked among independents as he is now.

[IceSpear]

O'Rourke is running a great campaign against the slimy unlikable Cruz. It'll be interesting to see how this race turns out. If Cruz still wins by a decent margin, and especially if he does so at the same time as a big D wave, it shows TX is completely unwinnable for any Democrat for at least another decade or two.

[IceSpear]

If O'Rourke ends up doing very well this year I certainly hope he stays active in TX politics and runs for something else in the future. He'd actually have accomplished what countless overhyped TX Dems have failed at.

[IceSpear]

If O'Rourke ends up doing very well this year I certainly hope he stays active in TX politics and runs for something else in the future. He'd actually have accomplished what countless overhyped TX Dems have failed at.

well, he would kinda have to, as a great result for Beto would be him beating Cruz.

Well, I mean moreso if he makes it a real race, not another routine double digit thumping.

[IceSpear]

Then finally a Mainstream Republican like Baker, Hogan, Sununu can step in and run for POTUS AND start rebuilding the Republican Party.

This will happen at the same time hell freezes over.

[IceSpear]

Well, putting aside the likelihood of it actually happening, the idea of Baker and Hogan being "mainstream Republicans" is laughable. A "mainstream Republican" is Steve King.

[IceSpear]

I don't think anyone is on the edge of their seat waiting for an Emerson poll, lol.

[IceSpear]

The red wave is so big that Republicans are spending millions in Texas.

[IceSpear]

TX Republicans have been diving head first into the gutter over the past few weeks, which is quite different from the last year and a half where they've barely acknowledged O'Rourke's presence, or only did so to occasionally mock him. Looks like they're getting pretty nervous.

[IceSpear]

No wonder Cruz is freaking out.

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Well, that would have to be the case if he's doing identical or worse than Hillary with minorities and the rural vote but the polls are consistently closer than 9 points.

Don't tell RINO Tom though. And remember, it's impossible for ANY Democrat to do better in the suburbs than Perfect Amazing Fit For The Suburbs™ Hillary Clinton did, especially against a "normal" non Trump Republican! You know, even though she had like a 40% favorability rating and the vast majority of Democrats in 2017-2018 have done far better in the suburbs than she did.

[IceSpear]

O'Rourke is a remarkable candidate who's running a stellar campaign. I have GOP friends in TX who are considering voting for him because he comes off as more genuine (Cruz does not). They don't agree with a lot of what he stands for but they appreciate him being straightforward and actually showing up to talk to people.

This race is starting to look more and more like Blunt vs. Kander.

[IceSpear]

^lmao

[IceSpear]

Please remove this actual analysis from the forum.

Nice work!

[IceSpear]

Texas Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke apologized for once writing a critical review of a Broadway musical in his college newspaper that said the actresses' "only qualifications seem to be their phenomenally large breasts and tight buttocks"

Well

Not a great look, but unlikely to move the needle.
If anyone thinks this helps Cruz, I’d remind you that the Senator (or a hapless intern) liked a porn video on his official twitter account, and that did nothing to affect his standing.

You're forgetting about the mindbogglingly huge moral double-standard that Democrats face in America, especially in red states.

[IceSpear]

I like how we're writing races off 3+ weeks out.

Agreed. Geoff Diehl and Jenny Wilson are still in this. It's not over til it's over.

[IceSpear]

Beto O’Rourke raised more than $38 million in the third quarter — about three times Ted Cruz’s haul

Wow...

$38 million kept out of the hands of democratic candidates who, unlike Beto, actually have a chance. Great Horrible news!

[IceSpear]

I like how we're writing races off 3+ weeks out.

Agreed. Geoff Diehl and Jenny Wilson are still in this. It's not over til it's over.

Are you seriously comparing a competitive race where no poll has shown a double digits lead to two races where the favored candidate is leading by 20+ in every poll?

If Democrats followed your advice, Reps would be sitting on 350 House seats and Democrats wouldn't bother competing because "muh idiot Republicans".

Calm down, it was a joke.

[IceSpear]

>Sorry, I can’t do the town hall debate.

2 seconds later

>How dare you hold a town hall by yourself and not debate me!

They call him Lyin Ted for a reason.

[IceSpear]

Sweat Ted....sweat!

https://mobile.twitter.com/scottbraddock/status/1058915208062734336

Well, some random guy on Twitter said it, so it must be true.

[IceSpear]

[IceSpear]

Texas (!) to me was the WHOLE ELECTION.  If you look at some of those very Republican House seats, the Democrats got very close.  Enormous swings to blue in suburban Texas.

TX 2 - Crenshaw (R) won 53-45.
TX 6 - Wright (R) won 53-45.
TX 10 - McCaul (R) won 51-47.
TX 21 - Roy (R) won 50-48.
TX 22 - Olson (R) won 51-46.
TX 24 - Marchant (R) won 52-48.
TX 31 - Carter (R) won 51-48.

NONE of these seven seats were on the radar.  #BETOBOUNCE

So what happened?!?!?

Those House results are amazing. So many of those weren't even seen as longshots. Beto had very long coattails. Hopefully Dems push hard in most/all of these seats in 2020.

[IceSpear]

So Lupe Valdez despite being a total lol-tier candidate lost by 13 points. Wendy Davis, in comparison, lost by 20 points. Really shows how much Beto helped downballot.

It's also funny when you remember the reactions Beto and Wendy Davis had upon announcing their runs. Wendy Davis was hyped to oblivion as the lady that could begin to transform Texas and maybe even pull off an upset, while Beto was dismissed as a joke. LOL

[IceSpear]

Not sure if anybody noticed this yet, but...Hays County voted for Lupe Valdez. Seriously. And Fort Bend County only voted for Abbott by 0.3%.

The GOP can kiss these counties goodbye.