Brazil 2006 Presidential Election

[Colin]

Interesting very interesting.

Alckmin didn't get as walluped as I though he would. Over 41% for him in the first round is a very good result. I was expecting a one round election with Lula getting around 53% or so or a runoff where Lula got right under the 50% mark. The gap is under 7%, which Alckmin should take to be as close to a victory as he is going to get.

As for the second round it's Lula's to lose, as was the whole election. Barring another big and atttention grabbing scandel, gotta remember that corruption and graft go hand in hand with Brazilian politics so it'll take something rather large, Lula's won this thing.

My prediction:

55% Lula
45% Alckmin

Also depends on turnout. If its higher in Sao Paolo and the South Alckmin will do better, if its higher in the Northeast and interior then Lula will do better.

[Colin]

Some things to note...

1. Turnout was about the same as in the second round as the first (down a little bit but not much).
2. Alckmin polled a lower % of the vote and less raw votes in the second than in the first round.

I'm guessing some voted for Alckmin, and the minor leftist candidates, just to force a runoff in order to show Lula that he isn't invincible. That seems most likely unless Alckmin's stabbed himself in the vote in the intervening weeks.