Venezuela National Assembly Elections, Dec. 6 2015

[Skye]

Hey this thread actually exists! Good.

Well, now that the MUD candidates for the most pro-opposition districts in the country have been disqualified because some totally-not-unfair reasons, I wonder what the MUD is going to do.

[Skye]

These are still happening. Anyone wish to discuss them?

So far, most polls have the MUD far ahead of the PSUV. I've compiled most polls on the Wiki page:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuelan_parliamentary_election,_2015#Opinion_polls

One thing to note, is that Venezuelan polls are notoriously junk. That said, however, in no other election the chavistas have been polling this badly. Maduro's approvals are like 20-something/70-something. So there's that.

[Skye]

And what will happen if the opposition wins?

That's the big question. In theory, having a majority in the Assembly would prevent the chavistas with getting away with many things (such as appointing openly chavistas into important branches of the government), but the regime is known for doing stuff as they see fit. We'll have to see.

One thing that is sure, is that if the opposition wins comfortably, much of the chavista brand credibility will be damaged.

[Skye]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-34546419

Former Zulia governor and 2006 presidential candidate Manuel Rosales, hoping to help the opposition in the elections, just arrived to Venezuela...

...to get himself arrested as soon as he stepped out of the plane.

[Skye]

In an "encouraging" news, a large group od Supreme Court justices is, apparently, taking early retirement. Their terms would be over next year, but they go now, so that they can be replaced before the election. At least, it suggests the government has not, yet, decided on winning at any cost.

Nearly everything they've done suggest they don't plan to cancel the election.

[Skye]

Just a heads up, the campaign officially began yesterday. I think it's likely that the opposition wins.

[Skye]

Yes, everything seems to indicate that the opposition won. We'll see in a little while.

[Skye]

22 seats have not been called yet. God I'm so happy.

[Skye]

Results here:

http://web-3.cne.gob.ve/resultado_asamblea2015/r/0/reg_000000.html

MUD landslide.

[Skye]

The MUD claims it has 112 deputies. We'll have to wait for official CNE results.

[Skye]

MUD 112, PSUV 55

The 3 Indigenous are supported by the MUD.

The 2 deputies left have been adjudicated to the MUD, it's just that the page hasn't updated.

EDIT: Yes, in short, they have the 2/3rds.

[Skye]

quick map of the list vote I made
(colors are in 5% increments)

I already made mine, but in 10% increments in Atlas colors, haha.

[Skye]

It is oficial

MUD 109 + 3 indigenous seats = 112
PSUV 55 seats

In Aragua 3 MUD won by a margin of 82 votes!

Aragua 3 was the only circuit the MUD won this election where Henrique Capriles got less than 40% of the vote against Maduro in 2013.

[Skye]

so does anyone have info on the partisan breakdown among the victorious MUD candidates?

Not yet. It will come, eventually.

[Skye]

I lied. Here it is:

http://www.lapatilla.com/site/2015/12/09/conoce-cuantos-diputados-obtuvieron-los-partidos-politicos-de-la-unidad/

PJ 33
AD 25
UNT 21
VP 14

[Skye]

Seems like somebody else beat me to a municipal map, but I prefer mine:

I do prefer yours too. I made a map of my home state Carabobo, by parish.

[Skye]

A smaller third party that split the vote with the MUD in Táchira.

[Skye]

Duh, what's the same of the party though?

Solidaridad Independiente. "Independent solidarity".

[Skye]

It really is a dreadful situation. And it's all being done ATM, you know when the Supreme Court should be on vacation. Chavismo never changes.

[Skye]

in a SHOCKING DEVELOPMENT Maduro has just taken from Congress the ability to control appointees to the Central Bank but also withhold data if it deems its publication a threat to national security or economic stability. I assume eventually the body will be used for renaming postoffices or something.

It's typical of chavismo to take away power from the opposition when they win, but this is just on another level.