UK General Discussion Thread: mayy lmao

[Blair]

People already pointing out how he's a 'loner' etc (much like the Charleston shooting/Sandy Hook) where as if this was a muslim then well the media would be reporting it very differently

[Blair]

Spoke to my very right wing uncle about this , and  he said he wanted the death penalty for the bloke. Surprised I haven't seen this argument come out

[Blair]

Wasn't Wilson kicked out by MI5

[Blair]

The coup is happening. Mcdonnel is probably begging Corbyn to quit, so he can run

[Blair]

I'm rather surprised that Burnham is sticking behind Corbyn right now. I think that maybe this shows Jeremy's got a fighting chance at surviving?

Not all- Andy is running for Mayor of Manchester and needs to win a Labour Primary. As someone who voted/worked for Andy it's fair enough to say that he took the cowardly option here.

BTW 6 hours ago I'd be happy with Watson killing Corbyn- but word in the party is that Watson is using this to get the party to deliver the leadership to himself- I'd much rather Dan Jarvis run

[Blair]

Lessons to those in the Labour party just how you sort out a coup (After years of failing; 2006, 2008,2009,2014)

Being the labour nerd I am I'd love to see how this was planned (and sure it's being written/saved) Clearly they've been told to resign 1 an hour (First resignation at 8:19 am, 12th at 9:45) Have managed to dominate news agenda all day

[Blair]

We're going to have all the unknown junior ministers resigning tomorrow (with 5 at 7.45am) They're are '30' set to go, which isn't that much since each Position (e.g Health) has a team of 3-4 Junior ministers. Most likely they'll work to coordinate it around Corbyn's attempts to re-do a Cabinet reshuffle/

I'm struggling to see how Corbyn can continue here; most people I know who voted for him have given up.

Time for Dan   

[Blair]

Tbh Chris Byrant should run for leader- the captain underpants incident actually helped him, he's a good media performer and a smart bloke.

Was surprised to see Nandy, Owen Smith and Healey all resign this morning. As this coup showed this is nothing to do with the 'blairites'. Both Smith and Nandy ruled themselves out as leader, meaning it's going to be one of the following in the leadership challenge (most likely on Wednesday)

Tom Watson- Only one who could swing the unions behind him, and by-far the strongest (His deputy leadership bid last summer imo was more impressive than Corbyn's victory)
Angela Eagle- From the soft left, 'adept' media performer but nothing special.
Yvetter Cooper- the Michael Howard of the Party.

For the record even in infighting this is a record for Labour- even the plots in the 50's and 80's were generally around a single Conference and were factional (in the same way the Blair/Brown was) This plot is the basically the entire party (minus the unions) against the Maomentum

[Blair]

God Corbyn's new Cabinet is awful- not only made up of Corbyn hacks, but also off my quick numbers 50-60% is from the 2015 intake. I can't see how this Cabinet is going to get through a GE

[Blair]

The Maomentum rally appears strong outside parliament- although it's filled with SWP placards. My hope (which was 100% wrong last summer) is that Corbynites will be loud, but party members could swing the leadership race.

I'm already seeing Angela Eagle being called a Blairite

[Blair]

Laura Kuensberg has just floated the possibility of Mandelson running for leader.

I suppose he might stand a chance of winning, if his opponents were Margaret Thatcher and Nigel Farage...

I mean, say what you want about Corbynistas, but Kuenssberg could at least try to pretend to be impartial, couldn't she?

That was a fake account- she's not that stupid

[Blair]

FTR the Labour Party is facing a Trump moment; a leader who the party know isn't fit to be PM, who lacks the support of the leadership, and who's electoral strategy is 'let's hold huge rallies'

As a Labour member since I was 16, and someone who's dedicated too much time to the party I'd struggle to vote for Corbyn if there was an early election in October

[Blair]

So... what's the likelihood of the Lib Dems picking up some disenchanted Labourites as a result of this chaos?

If Corbyn stands in the General Election with this current cabinet I'd struggle to vote Labour

[Blair]

Again I'll ask, as I did in another thread: What, at this point, does Corbyn hope to accomplish by staying on? I understand that he believes himself to have his own mandate from the membership that he considers more important than the good graces of the PLP, but what does he hope to accomplish now? Does he care about the good graces of the people who elected the PLP, of whom there are thirty-seven times more than voted for him for leader? Does he expect the former Shadow Cabinet to come crawling back if/when he wins another leadership election? Does he think Labour can actually win a general election with a parliamentary party that despises its leader and a latter-day 'Who? Who?' ministry filled with nobodies, a ministry that he can't even fill because he has so few remaining allies?

Well the optimist says that he's wanting to resign- I've heard rumors that he wants to quit, and that some of his allies agree but Seamus Milne (the much hated spin doctor) is convincing him to stay.

Most likely Clive Lewis or JM are trying to get the 37 signatures needed to get on the ballot.

[Blair]

what does this change?

[Blair]

Does anyone else think the reason Boris Johnson didn't stand was deal between him and May to get a top cabinet position like Chancellor?

No- Boris lost because he didn't have enough MP's to get through to the last round. The tory leadership race is suited to these games, and always has produced strange results.

May hates Johnson; who's not suited to be in the cabinet in a major role (he'll take something like Culture)

[Blair]

My Predictions (I've ripped it off from what I've read/been briefed, and what would be logical)

Chancellor- Phillip Hammond
Foreign Sec- Justine Greening
Home- Amber Rudd
Defence- Michael Fallon
Justice- Dominic Grieve
Education- Nicky Morgan
Business- Pritti Patel
Health- Damian Green
Environment- Leadsom
Transport- Sajid Javid
Work and Pensions- Jeremy Hunt

[Blair]

Didn't home sec Amber Rudd say that Foreign Sec Johnson is 'not the man you'd want driving you home'...

[Blair]

Didn't Fox let his boyfriend run his office?

[Blair]

Worth noting the Foreign Office mandarins are going to very upset; like all diplomats they're scruffy and generally moaning gits....

And May has given away the Brexit negotiating, and trade meaning that the Foreign Office will just be a branch of BA

[Blair]

Theresa May[be] has finally decided to go ahead with the Heathrow runway expansion; but is putting off a commons vote until 2017.

Zac Goldsmith has resigned to run a by-election on the 'issue' but it will most likely be about Brexit, Brexit and a bit more Brexit. The Liberals will be looking at this seat with high hopes (was held by them from 97-2010) and it's the typical lib dem seat (white, middle class professionals, progressive leaning etc)

Tories not running a candidate

[Blair]

Tbh Ed Balls said in his memoirs that most things like this in government are cock ups, that look like grand conspiracies.

Besides, I'm convinced Brexit is just an entire Yes, Minister episode. There was even an episode where they said that Leak investigations are conducted by the people who probably leaked in the first place.

[Blair]

With talks about the working class being racist fyck, how do the White  Working Class vote in the UK, , and also the white working class vote in England compared to other countries in the UK. What would be the most left-wing working class group, and the least left-wing working class group. How much more left-wing are the working class whites, than middle class whites?

Prepare to be bored to death (I'm sure another UK poster will correct all of this)

Often the WWC is broken up into the NRS social grade of C1/C2/D1 ( at least when looking at it in depth) which basically means people who are skilled (C1) Semi Skilled (C2) or unskilled workers (D1) Looking at the voters for that group they vote Labour as a whole- with a 13% lead for unskilled workers. As UK politics is a lot less demographic focused (at least within our media) than the US it's hard for me to get the numbers off the top of my head but I'd still say the WWC lean towards Labour.

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3575/How-Britain-voted-in-2015.aspx

[Blair]

We've got the bizarre situation currently happening in the Labour Party where the whips are planning on rebelling...

https://twitter.com/EllieJPrice/status/824643344743731200

[Blair]

You'd assume that but in Corbyns Labour you don't actually get punished for voting against the Whip...