Likeliest or best VP choice for Clinton?

[Blair]

Kaine or Warner would be a good choice-although it depends how much the 'progressive' wing of the part feels angered

[Blair]

Tim Kaine is the likeliest pick, maybe the best.

Though I think there may be pressure on Clinton to pick Julian Castro, especially if Rubio is the GOP nominee.

Why are so many people confident that Clinton will select Kaine? Do they have some close history that I'm unaware of, or is it the fact that Kaine represents a swing state in the Senate? Kaine is a conservative Democrat. Joe Manchin would be a better selection for VP; for some reason, he is perceived as a conservative Democrat,

Manchin didn't vote for repealing Don't Ask Don't tell, and refused to say whether he even voted for Obama in the 2012 primary. The progressive wing would not be happy, nor would most democrats if Manchin is picked where as Kaine is a moderate centre left democrat