Labour Party (UK) Leadership Election, 2016

[Blair]

Evening Standard changed their headline- and the released script show this is no leadsom.

This is the usual bollocks that happened last summer- Kendall's team briefed that Andy was homophobic catholic, and despite it being bollocks the charge kept coming up

I honestly think they are both sub-par (and so is Angela Eagle). Labour big problem isn't Corbyn or the PLP or the NEC (but, honestly, all 3 are terrible at doing their job).

The issue is than there is absolutely no Labour MP right now with enough leadership to beat Conservatives right now. Too much people which never worked outside politics (and it's not being an adviser you develop leadership). There is huge structural issues, but, sure, that's easier to point the PLP or Corbyn instead of solving them.

David Miliband, Alan Johnson,heck even Ed Balls and Andy Burnham have all shown that mysterious 'leadership' trait- it's worth noting that the the three most electoral successful PM's since WW2- Wilson, Blair and Thatcher had all done very little in terms of real leadership, but rather came to power at a good time+ reformed their party.

If we had a businessmen run they'd be called a blairite

[Blair]

Leadership is supposedly bricking it about Foster's legal challenge. Surprising, but this might just be because he's hired a v. scary looking legal team plus their usual paranoia.

I've read that courts are unwilling to get involved- most think it's badly worded but because it's a 'private club' and the NEC is the established body to deal with these matters they'll ignore it. However nothing is impossible- the lawyer he's got is the Labour Party's own lawyer

Looks like no unity candidate tonight- Smith has 88 MPs+ Eagle has 72. Small enough difference for Eagle to claim she could get a late swing tomorrow.

As I've said I'll reluctantly support Angela, but will go all out for Owen, 

[Blair]

Well I was wrong

[Blair]

List of nominations, confirms what has been said for ages- Smith was backed by the Brownites/soft left

http://www.labour.org.uk/index.php/leadershipcandidates/owen-smith#nominations

[Blair]

Yes

Is there a list of Eagle's noms anywhere?

Not that I can find- apparently she called McNicol  at 4.30 to tell him not to publish them (there was suppose to be an update at 5)

I'm sure they'll leak tonight

[Blair]

God that map just reminds me that Labour really only has MP's in the metro areas

[Blair]

It's the Taffia!

[Blair]

Times piece tomorrow has Corbyn's team attack Smith as 'Blair-lite' who supports selling off the NHS... interesting how they're trying to define him early

[Blair]

I can't help but feel a victory for Owen would be a hollow and listless one.  I've never seen such a transparent voter suppression effort:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-leadership-election-how-to-vote-25-justgiving-jeremy-corbyn-angela-eagle-owen-smith-a7144931.html

It's not voter suppression; I've honestly always said this- it's the activists who have to take the burden of the party, who pay the fees and basically put in the work- you shouldn't just be able to pay 3 quid and walk away (which is what 98% of Corbyn voters I know have done)

[Blair]

150,000 signed up- netting the party a fair bit of money.

I signed up my sister, and mum but they're probably the only two registered supporters who aren't voting for JC

[Blair]

I signed up my sister, and mum but they're probably the only two registered supporters who aren't voting for JC

Eh... a lot of the RS's from last time joined the party after Corbyn was elected and this time round there has been a push for people to become RS from other elements so it probably won't be quite so lopsided. Going to be tricky to measure accurately actually.

I wonder how many people will end up getting disqualified though?

According to Ian Martins' book (which is a great read on Labour) 57,000 were rejected last year. I expect it could be higher as they're actually prepared for it, and actually have money this time.

Tbh this is just going to be a last stand; the entire anti- Corbyn faction is united around a genuine left winger, who wasn't around for Iraq and is actually good a speaker,likely to be backed by GBM (with 600,000 trade unionists).

If Smith doesn't win then no-one will

[Blair]

I love how Corbyn says 'I don't do personalities' when he's clearly briefed the Press, and his surrogate (Diane Abbott) to attack him on that.

We want politicians with real life experience! But it can't be in a capitalist group.

Tbh Smith should paint Corbyn as a Westminster politician who's hopelessly out of touch 

[Blair]

For very devout Labour watchers Anne Black (the only NEC member I've actually heard of) and who I voted for whenever the last NEC elections were before this has been attacked by LRC, and they've vowed never to support her again.

TL;DR: John McDonnell is beginning the purges on people who are actually on the left (not soft left) of the party

[Blair]

Black runs on the Grassroots Alliance slate (i.e. the Organised Left) in NEC elections but is not part of the CPLD.

I honestly don't understand how the CPLD and these other groups have survived for so long during their wilderness years

[Blair]

I've never been so disappointed by the labour leadership contest,

You don't remember the early stages of the last year? When the excitement was between Burnham and Cooper

[Blair]

I've never been so disappointed by the labour leadership contest,

You don't remember the early stages of the last year? When the excitement was between Burnham and Cooper

And Miss Personality herself Liz Kendall!

Confession- I very briefly flirted with the idea of supporting Kendall after seeing her on Marr, for about a day most people were impressed with her

[Blair]

If I'm reading what's going on correctly the Corbynistas are presently busily turning the Labour Party into a pure left wing protest party.

That's all fine and dandy but the end result will almost certainly be an open ended period of Conservative government.

I really don't see the point of doing that in all honesty.

I suppose the Hard Left prefers losing the next GE with Corbyn rather than with Owen Smith. Because, let's be honest, does anyone here see Owen Smith beating Theresa May?

Now, but I'd rather have 250 MPs rather than 160... It's all tactics, much like Kinnock and the new right did in 80's we need to be thinking long term. Heck the tories knew that Michael Howard would do better than IDS, and they replaced him

[Blair]

Well naturally everyone wants the MP's to vote when in suits them (OMOV was always the aim of the right in the party)

As boring as it is the tories system of MP's whittling down the list to 2 MPs- who members vote on, is actually a pretty decent one- and wouldn't have produced a different result apart from last summer being Burnham v May.

On other news I went to the Owen Smith rally in London last night- was a very passionate Speaker, and clearly has more fire in his belly than Angela ever had.

The one thing worth noticing is that we've entered silly season- with summer holidays/summer it's likely that many people will switch off after a rather hectic month

[Blair]

If I'm reading what's going on correctly the Corbynistas are presently busily turning the Labour Party into a pure left wing protest party.

That's all fine and dandy but the end result will almost certainly be an open ended period of Conservative government.

I really don't see the point of doing that in all honesty.

I've read one theory that Corbyn would be happy turning his little bit of the party into Syriza , and I wouldn't put it past him on current form

Syriza got into government

[Blair]

to rant someone on the Owen Smith campaign needs to get sacked...

They're method of getting volunteers is to get your email/phone number, ring you once a day on a number you can't call back. How hard is it to send an email out to all volunteers saying 'phone bank session starting here'

It's small things, but JC's team are already phone banking members whilst we haven't even sorted out our volunteers yet

[Blair]

Im starting to like Owen, tho i think some of his proposals may turn off potential swing voters
but so far so good

I've actually heard this from a lot of Blairites- I mean the actual people in Progress and on the right. Think they've come to know that it's better to have Milibandesque policies delivered well rather than delivered by Corbyn's team.

Some thoughts on the race. I started phone banking yesterday after my rant- has a very Alamo feel to do- lots of dark jokes, talks about what to do afterwards and genuine laughter at the state we're in.

+Currently the polling is right 60% JC, 25% Smith, 15% DK

+A lot of people think Corbyn is going to win, and thus won't bother voting. Serious problem

+CLP nominations look bad (50 to JC, 15 to Owen) but vote share we're still at 60/40. We're doing very very well in London which is by far the area with the most votes.

[Blair]

We could have ran Clive Lewis or Lisa Nandy against JC and we'd still face criticism- they support JC so they look for anything to attack them their opponent. The top 5 things I've heard from day 1 of phone banking

-'If Owen wanted to be leader why didn't he run in 2015?'

- 'I just don't know anything about Owen, but I know that Corbyn is honest/perfect/credible'

- 'Owen hasn't been an MP long enough'

- 'I support democracy'

- 'I don't like JC's policies, he's a weak leader but I just have to support Jeremy''

[Blair]

We could have ran Clive Lewis or Lisa Nandy against JC and we'd still face criticism- they support JC so they look for anything to attack them their opponent. The top 5 things I've heard from day 1 of phone banking

-'If Owen wanted to be leader why didn't he run in 2015?'

- 'I just don't know anything about Owen, but I know that Corbyn is honest/perfect/credible'

- 'Owen hasn't been an MP long enough'

- 'I support democracy'

- 'I don't like JC's policies, he's a weak leader but I just have to support Jeremy''

Most common criticism I hear of him is his ties to big Pharma.

I haven't actually heard that yet over the phone-most labour members know very little about him. As with any selectorate you have people who spend too much time (myself) focused on this, and people who will not care at all.

[Blair]

From what I've heard it's likely GMB will back Owen (Paul Kenny, their former leader endorsed him)+ I've also heard that Unison are moving closer to support him. Speaking to members the rank and file trade unions seem to be the most anti-Corbyn.

[Blair]

They should see if tony blair wants to make a comeback lol

Far, far more people would support expelling Blair from the party than his return as leader. And I'm referring to the people in the PLP as opposed to the wider membership.

I'm joking but it's funny considering he is the only person to lead labor to victory since the 1970's

Pretty much anyone could have done so in 1997.

Which is what everyone was saying in 1990, about 1992.

Blair's achievement in 1997 wasn't winning- it was winning in Seats that hadn't elected Labour MP's since 1945, and will probably never again.