Why does everyone now think Bush will win the nomination?

[Potus]

The Republican primary is an amazing instance of people talking past the data. The narrative that the media likes to push is one of Koran burning, abortion clinic bombing, gun toting hooded figures all getting together to determine the best means of destroying America's inevitable march into a brighter day of progress and safe zones.

This is not what the Republican primary actually is. There are two arguments that each serve has a healthy reality check to the media narrative. The first is of blue state Republicans. It's been talked about on the Atlas before, and been circulated around the blogosphere. Blue state Republicans are much less rural, much less evangelical, much more moderate, and very much overrepresented when it comes to the nomination process. A lot of Governor Romney's support came from blue state Republicans. These will naturally favor the establishment candidate.

Blue state Republicans have ideological and cultural counterparts in the rest of the party. Again, this has been talked about on the Atlas before. Moderate and liberal Republicans still compose 25-30% of the primary electorate in presidential years. These voters have a tendency to "fall in line" behind the candidate of the somewhat conservatives. The somewhat conservatives are the bulk of the primary electorate, close to 40%.

So, you look at the national primary electorate and the over-representation of blue state delegates and the conclusion you come to is clear: the primary very much favors a center-right, establishment-appeasing candidate.

Governor Bush looks to be that candidate. His "heresies" are on issues which is acceptable to be heretical on to the moderates and the mainstream conservatives. Immigration is an issue which is very easy to reach across the aisle on. President W. Bush did it twice. Common Core is mostly an issue for the strong social conservative and very conservative voters that get a disproportionate amount of airtime when it comes to the Republican primary.

Governor Bush has the best pitch to make to the moderates and mainstream conservatives. He's definitely got the resources, the infrastructure, and the know-how to deliver the pitch. Therefore, Jeb Bush stands a very good chance of winning the Republican nomination.