CA-GOV: Brown vs. Donnelly (user search)
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  CA-GOV: Brown vs. Donnelly (search mode)
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Author Topic: CA-GOV: Brown vs. Donnelly  (Read 5011 times)
Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
Joshua
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,710
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -5.91

« on: January 22, 2014, 12:31:36 AM »

If Brown won by 13 points and Boxer won by 10 points in a massive Republican wave year, I wouldn't be surprised if Brown could crack 60% and edge near two-thirds, especially if he does any sort of campaigning. In California, no one knows (or cares) that the state is actually improving, but if he points out the good he actually has done, reelection will be even more of a cake walk than it already is.

Another something laughable: Meg Whitman spent $140 million out of pocket on her campaign for governor against Brown. What a joke.

The question I'm asking is are Democrats going to be able to hold onto their supermajorities in the state Assembly and Senate that renders Republicans completely irrelevant in Sacramento.
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
Joshua
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,710
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -5.91

« Reply #1 on: January 23, 2014, 04:29:48 PM »

Runoff ? Hahahahaha NO.

Donnelly will be lucky to carry 12 counties

Speaking of that, actually a better question would be will Donnelly carry Orange County. Remember its trending to the left and Romney/Emken only won it by 6/5 points in 2012.
I don't think it's a question whether the Republican nominee will carry Orange County; the Republican will. A population that is 20% Asian and 20% Hispanic with a young, more progressive generation growing up in the suburbs hints that changes are upon the horizon, just not in 2014.

It would take a Mourdock/Akin/King candidate to blow Orange County for the Republicans in 2014.
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
Joshua
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,710
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -5.91

« Reply #2 on: January 23, 2014, 04:41:43 PM »

Deukmejian was the last California Governor to crack the 60 % mark (he got 61% in 1986)

The only thing that I see stopping Brown from cracking 60% is if the Pub base gets ramped up on the laws regarding social issues Brown has signed (mainly - licenses for illegals, transgender children in schools, etc). But he's taken such a centrist path on the budget (considering he could go ape sh**t with spending surpluses with the Democrat supermajority in the legislature) that even the state Republicans are conceding that he has done a good job managing the state's money. Obviously their critique is it happened largely in part to tax increases, but they can only argue against those so much since after all the voters approved them by 11 points in 2012.

The people who don't like him just don't because he's Jerry Brown and he's old and been involved in California politics forever and are sick of him. But there isn't much complaining about the actual job he is doing.
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
Joshua
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,710
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -5.91

« Reply #3 on: February 03, 2014, 05:52:07 PM »

Brown is pretty unpopular and hasn't delivered on his 2010 promises to reform the state government. He'll probably win for lack of a decent challenger, but I suspect it will be closer than you think.
Are you sure you live in California?
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