Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[EPG]

There is VERY little common ground. Just attitudinal. It's hard to govern on that basis because what can di Maio "give" in exchange for the "take", a flat tax?

[EPG]

Yeah, it's harder to work out feasible political solutions when you are actually in Italy and you can see the migrant crisis first-hand. It makes you think about why people do not want an open door to hundreds of thousands more mainly Muslim, mainly irregular, needy migrants, on top of the 600,000 already there (1% of Italy's population). Using public services has just become more difficult in recent years.

[EPG]

I have no fantasies and regret the problems faced by migrants; obviously, no replacement of populations is likely in any European country and it is a meme to justify racism. However, it is ludicrous to pretend that the Italian migrant crisis has had no negative impact on anyone else's life in Italy. It did. That "pretending" incidentally is a major reason why the European left is currently non-electable. To be clear: you cannot just propose adding half-a-million irregular dependents on public services to your country, and expect the existing dependents on public services to keep supporting your party. Particularly when the new people come from traditional Muslim communities, and thus inevitably a number have negative attitudes to women, gay people, Jews, etc.

[EPG]

Why would one have to insist that one's only options are PD and Lega, unless one is being pressured to go with Forza or the centre-right as a whole?

[EPG]

It's not as if there is any spare money for the PD to get some concessions, from either left or right.

Meanwhile, some people still genuinely think basic income is coming to southern Italy.

[EPG]

Now Forza is #2 centro-destra, did they threaten Salvini with new elections and no coalition, with undoubted mandate for M5S? Will Berlusconi help M5S-Lega from outside, like PD-NCD?

[EPG]

Looks like an arrangement Renzi was right not to touch, correct?

[EPG]

Here are some key points of their coalition contract:

* Flat Tax: With two tax rates of 15 and 20 percent for individuals and families and 15 percent for businesses, the coalition partners hope to boost economic growth. Next year's planned increase in value added tax (IVA) in the amount of 12.5 billion euros will be cancelled. Tax evasion and the shadow economy are to be combated.

* Basic income: 780 euros for each person in need provides the model of the minimum income that the coalition partners want to introduce. Unemployed people should, however, have to commit themselves to attend training courses and accept job offers, otherwise they will lose the minimum income.

* Pension reform: The amendment to the 2011 pension reform, which abolished early retirement by the then Monti government, is a cornerstone of the government's program. The Italians should be allowed to retire again after 41 years of contributions and not only at the age of 67 years. That should cost up to 15 billion euros. Pensioners should receive at least 780 euros per month.

* Revision of the EU Treaties: The government intends to work for an amendment to the EU fiscal compact "for Italy to regain its sovereignty".

* Immigration and security: Italy wants to work for a reform of the Dublin agreement. The deportation procedures are to be intensified and the fight against human trafficking to be tightened. Radical Islamic associations and prayer places are to be closed. Planned is a register of imams. New jobs are planned for the police.

* Foreign policy: The new government wants Brussels to lift the sanctions against Russia. The Italian defense industry should be promoted.

* Social Issues: It is planned to introduce a ministry that looks after the needs of disabled people.

* Reduction of political costs: Privileges of politicians should be reduced. The use of service cars and state flights and police escorts for politicians should be severely restricted and politicians' pensions limited to a maximum of 5,000 euros per month.

There is no money for any more than 1 of this, and nobody in Europe will listen to a government that wants to quit the euro / EU. I know the Eurointelligence writers read this site, so they probably have the cash figures. Anyway, they suggested a parallel currency plan is also included, i.e. tantamount to euro exit.

[EPG]

It's also not very democratic to have a written constitution. But every country places some limits on representative democracy. It seems fair to explicitly ask Italians if they reject the euro and the EU treaties, rather than "do you like free money, btw we are quitting the euro, that's democracy".

[EPG]

Italy is not going to become an export-driven country by printing joke lira. Some crazy number like 70% of people are employed by family businesses.

[EPG]

It's a very basic question whether Italians want their government to stay in the euro or not.

One outcome
1. Most vote for the white nationalists and basic income allies
2. "hey, why is the bank closed"
3. "pay your EU membership fee in euro"
4. "hey, where did the EU flags go"

[EPG]

You don't insist on Prof. "Plan B" Savona if your secret mission is to stay in the euro.

[EPG]

We all thought there would be an election within 18 months regardless of what happens, and that Lega would take FI-FdI voters. That has merely been accelerated. In my experience, most politicians want to be in government, but also, want to be in government to enact policies (though I don't know anyone at Salvini's level). There are very few benefits to being in government and not enacting your stated policies. It makes you look weak. That is why when Salvini proposes a minister with a secret plan to quit the euro, you should assume that Salvini's plan is not to stay in the euro, nor is it merely to be top man in a government when he was already, basically, writing the policies.

[EPG]

It's telling that - despite the wishful thinking of the odd Hamon-Wilders axis that comprises most of Atlas - PD isn't being destroyed in polls. Almost all Lega gains are from Berlusconi and M5S. M5S look more and more like unprepared sitting ducks, being used to allow the far-right to take over internal institutions before a fully far-right government can be imposed on Italy.

[EPG]

Historically, MSI - AN - FdI rather than the Lega gained from Italian-nationalist minority fear in South Tyrol. Lega Nord, of course, is not actually an Italian-nationalist party or even xenophobic, in the strict sense of fear of all foreigners. Its ideology is that northerners are Padan, Lombard and Aryan, which poses no difficulty in co-operating with Austrians, and is also entirely consistent with wanting to drive Africans out of Italy.