Election Analysis of Dean v Bush

[© tweed]

I've been working on analyzing how a race between Dean and Bush would shape up.

The data and predictions were made in October, so it's a little bit out of date currently. I've begun a second, more indepth look at the numbers which will probably be completed in a month or so.

The analysis is available at:
http://www.geocities.com/electionanalysis/dean.html

Great analysis!
A few things:
I don't see how dean has a 12% lead in Maine or California.  California went Gore by about that much in 2000, and maine was undecided for a long time on election night...
Also, I think George W. Bush wouldhave about a 65-70% chance of beating Dean.

[© tweed]

Dean would Win for Democarts & Bush wins for Repblicans & Bush leads in Polls in states like Pennsvillan, Minnestoa, Iowa & Other Place & Bush wins it

Pennsvillan!!!!

[© tweed]

http://www.worldandi.com/public/1992/june/cr6.cfm

That shows how an upset can be pulled off.  some people had Clinton finishing third in the 1992 Election behind Bush and Perot.

Nader running as an independent means that he isn't on the ballot in as many states, which is good.

[© tweed]

92 was just plain crazy.  Perot the day he announced he quit before jumping back in was AHEAD!!  Then he blasted Bush as he left and bragged up Clinton.  It was widely reported that Clinton didn't think he could win when he started running he was just trying to get his name out there for 1996.  But then Perot came in attacking Bush and Clinton soared with Perot taking enough of Bush's supporters and original democrats seeing the opportunity left Perot and returned to the dem nominee which was then Clinton.

This should be a what if question.  If perot didn't drop out and just ran straight up, how would he have done.  He got 19% then and he was jumping in and out and picked a WEAK running mate to get ont he ballot in some states.  Always wondered what it would have been like, and if he could have thrown it into the House at least, as if I remember right he finished 2d in some states.

http://www.worldandi.com/public/1992/june/cr6.cfm

That shows how an upset can be pulled off.  some people had Clinton finishing third in the 1992 Election behind Bush and Perot.

Nader running as an independent means that he isn't on the ballot in as many states, which is good.

He finished second in Maine and the news station had him in the elad for a while there, although they called it for Clinton around midnight.

[© tweed]

just made a 1992 what if scenario in the Presidential history forum to talk about this.

Good!  I'll be there!