My Finish Predictions - Iowa

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Dean is dying a slow death.  Edwards still has his "5 days to change America tour" coming up.  So here it is:

1. Edwards
2. Gephardt
3. Kerry
4. Dean

All are within 5 points of each other though.

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1. Dean
2. Gephardt
3. Clark
4. Edwards
5. Kerry
6. Kucinich
7. Sharpton

Clark is polling single digits there.

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Reasonable prediction John.

But Gepthatd need to win Iowa or he is done.

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Well, high turnout probably hurts dean, but I don't see why it helps Edwards more than Gephardt or Kerry.

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If gephardt doesn't endorse anybody, Edwards would take most of his supporters along for the ride to Boston.  But, if Gephardt does endorse someone, a sizeable anount of his supporters would go to the endorsee.

Is endorsee a word?  

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Edwards is the man!  He could give bush a run for his money, no matter the circumstances.

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Here are my predictions:

Dean
Kerry
Edwards
Gephardt

I think Dean will win with a significantly higher percent of the vote than he's polling right now.

Is that *think* or *hope*??

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What I was trying to say was the candidate who received Gephardt's endorsement.  Endorsee sounded right.  But it wasn't.  

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If Edwards wins Iowa....
Finishes second in NH....
Becomes the anti-Dean....

Watch out W.

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hey, I'll vote for who I want to . I've paid a little attention to the fantasy election when I come on here -- the debate itself is more interesting than actually voting, heh.

Just register.  Give gustaf a pay raise and Nym a vote.

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I stand by my prediction that Dean would win Pennsylvania.

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The way we do caucus here is absolutely INSANE.

We all go into the room, and the chair, after a while, gets us to stand in corners. "Gephardt supporters in that corner, Dean in that one, Kerry over there, and Edwards here. Undecided please head to the center of the room."

Then, every group is rated on its viability.


So, If Kerry gets 25%, Dean gets 25%, Gephardt gets 20% and Edwards gets 10%, with 20% undecided, Edwards is eliminated, and the people who voted for Edwards would be disbanded, and join the other groups or sit in the undecided area.

Now, Kerry has 30%, Dean has 27% and Gephardt has 22%.

Becuase Gephardt's group is still viable, because with the undecideds (21%) it could have 43%, therefore being ahead of Kerry.

Now, all the groups try to convince the undecideds to join them. After an hour or so, the tallies look like this:

Kerry 35%
Gephardt 33%
Dean 32%

Now, delegates are assigned. Just say there are seven.

All the candidates automatically get one automatically (caucus law) and then because they all have the right amount, they can all get 1 more delegate. The last delegate goes to Kerry because he has the most support, even if the other two were just behind him.

This sydtem is good and bad. I think it's good that it is preferential, but bad in that we will never know how many people actually voted for whoever comes fourth.

If 15% of the state votes for Edwards, that would be great for his campaign, but ity is basically un-tallyable, because no figures of who voted for whom is there. 15% would be an unviable group, so he wouldn't get many electoral votes at all.

If there were seven delegates for the whole state, then the fifteen percent would get him one.

Unfair for Edwards, good for Dean and Kerry (their competition doesn't get anything)

Anyway, I predict Kerry will win, then Gephardt, then Dean. Su[pport for Dean has just evaporated here over the last week or so, and a lot of undecideds are going to Gephardt and Kerry.

I'm voting Dean, preferencing Edwards, then Kerry.

Why can't you just vote?

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I don't know how they vote in australia, I just know that I like Mark Latham.

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Carey is Australian.

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Carey is Australian.

And a few others as well. (ABD?) I visited Australia during an election year, the last one, and they seemed less worked up about politics than a lot of other countries. Whether that's a good thing or a bad thing is up to your personal views I guess. The problem with it is that it's too complicated, but that's not an argument in the case of caucus voters, of course.

I have never been in the southern Hemisphere.

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The furthest south I have been is Cozumel and Cancun in Mexico.  Never been to europe either...or the states in between the american coasts.

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How is a vacation an ambition?

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Zeigermann--if you want to go, just go!  Nothing presumably would be stopping you unless you are financially limited or work 24-7.

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Edwards?  Now there's a shocker.  He wouldn't even be able to win his own home state.

Probably true, but he would make it competitive, forcing Bush to spend some time in NC.  And he would swing Louisiana and Arkansas to the democrats, plus make Tennessee a tossup and Florida more competitive.  He is the strongest Dem in the field.

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The Iowa Poll Numbers

Kerry-------------26%
Edwards---------23%
Dean-------------20%
Gephardt--------18%

We're movin' on up!

Hugh, please make Edwards your first choice.  For the sake of the world, make edwards your first choice.

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Edwards is on the rise, he won't fall back to fourth place.  and dena is eating breakfast with Jimmy Carter today in Georgia?  I don't get that.

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1. Edwards (bit of a reach here, but I really like this guy. I'm choosing with my heart and not my head here

2. Kerry

3. Gephardt

4. Dean (hopefully this will be the shocking death blow)


is it likely? naaaah, but maybe if I wish hard enough it will happen.

Gephardt and Dean's attacks on each other have helped Edwards and Kerry, which is why those two are surging.  And your prediction shows that, so it is not unrealistic.

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Spelling is getting better by the predictions aren't.  gephardt isn't losing by 18%.

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I think Kerry and Edwards momentum will help them in Iowa, but it all comes down to organization. Gephardt and dean are the ones with it. Dean has the 5,000 young people going out there knocking on doors and and operating phones. Gephardt has the union members who are experienced with the caucases and has the base of seniors.
but when it all comes down to it, well here are my predictions

1-Gephardt
2-Dean
3-Kerry
4-Edwards
5-Clark
6-Lieberman
7-Kuchinich
8-Sharpton

Clark and Lieberman are skipping Iowa.

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Nice Clinton-Gore logo majority!  But here's my guy: