NH is famously independent and unpredictable, and the polls tell you one thing- who's going up and down. The ones going up will do much better than expected. So, expect Lieberman and Edwards' upward momentum to give them good totals (not sure how good), Kerry's stagnation to be slightly bad sign, Clark's tumbling numbers to be devastating. It's Dean I can't figure- is he going up or down?
He will do worse than polls show because of the fact that indpendents, who are usally not polled, will vote for Edwards, and a little bit Kerry.